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Machiavellian on 09 December 2022
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Ryuu96 said:
Machiavellian said:

The FTC does this all the time, why would they care if they lose.  It's not like anyone job is on the line.  Instead, they need to appear to be strong against big corps like MS.  Just look at the arguments, it's like they are not even trying.  I highly doubt that this lawsuit means anything to any other regulatory body unless the arguments were strong enough to be used.  

I believe you fear the CMA to much but like all regulatory divisions, there is a price you can pay.  Like I said, as long as they continue to focus on COD, then the CMA is nothing to worry about.  If the narrative change then a revaluation would be on hand.  

They aren't trying precisely because they are hoping for someone else to block the deal, that is obvious now.

Regulators can be swayed into a certain direction based on the actions of other regulators, while regulators do focus on their own area, they are still in touch with each other as well and sometimes work together to take something down. CMA also expressed very similar arguments to FTC, such as disregarding Nintendo as a competitor entirely.

If there is indeed a price you can pay, then why is CMA blocking so many deals? And why didn't Microsoft pay that to FTC? We don't know much about CMA's Phase 2 yet but their Phase 1 was pretty awful and they don't exactly need a good reason to block the deal it seems, they can now just parrot FTC's argument.

This deal entirely depends on if CMA is feeling as political as FTC...Regulators clamping down on big tech is the big thing right now. Again, FTC doesn't block deals, they get courts to block the deals, CMA blocks a deal, if you appeal, it gets sent to CAT, who then send it back to CMA who can then just block it again.

Based on CMA's Phase 1 arguments and that UK is more often than not aligned with America, and Microsoft is the master at lobbying in America but failed here, they're even less in UK, CMA doesn't care about Microsoft one bit, so it entirely depends on how Political CMA is feeling, it's a complete tossup Imo.

That just seems way to elaborate just to get some other country to block a deal.  Until I see actual proof that this lawsuit actually means anything outside of the US I am going to have to say its pretty much just grandstanding.  I highly doubt the CMA needs a lawsuit by the FTC to block the deal.  If anything, this would just show how strong MS position is for the purchase and the chance of it going through that much better.  If you need to pull desperate measures for success then you are using your last shot , hail marry pass, half court heave you name it.

Here is how things will go.  MS has positioned themselves using COD and Sony's help as a bribe to the CMA.  Yes, COD is the bribe.  The CMA will accept the deal with the approval of concessions from MS which is what they have been working on.  COD being the centerpiece of everything allows MS to easily give up whatever the CMA wants so they can claim victory and MS gets their deal done.