| RolStoppable said: While a lot of what goes into Switch sales predictions is speculation, the one fact that's present is that the software pipeline remains healthy. That's why tremendous declines in hardware sales momentum can be ruled out. |
Yeah very true.
A few things to consider when predicting where Switch will finish up
1. Switch 2 will presumably be backwards compatible because it would be insane and make zero sense to not do that.
2. If Nintendo doesnt do large price cuts on the Switch (and so far is looking like they might not do any cuts at all!) then when Switch 2 comes out it'll probably be at the same price as the OLED, or maybe just $50 more if Switch does get one price cut. When combined with #1 above, Switch 2 would completely kill off the OG Switch and OLED due to similar price points. Perhaps only the Lite would still get low sales because its still a great cheap system for parents to buy kids. So it's very possible the switch barely sells anything in its post-successor life. Instead of selling 5+ mil after successor launch maybe it only sells like 1+ mil so where its at when Switch 2 launches is basically where it finishes.
3. Then of course there's a timing of the Switch 2 launch. Earliest possible reasonable date would be March 2024. Though I think like May/June 2024 would make more sense so they can wait to announce it after Switch's last big holiday season, rather than hurt Switch sales during the holiday season by announcing in the Fall for an early 2024 launch. But Spring 2024 launch assumes we arent getting much in the way of big games on the Switch - probably just stuff we know about (Zelda, Pikmin, Advance Wars), rumored Prime remake, Prime 4, rumored DK, and presumably 2d Mario as the Holiday 2023 game because Nintendo would have to have lost their minds completely to not make a 2D Mario game for the Switch.
4. But we also have to factor in the possibility that Nintendo will be fine with HW sales gradually dropping for a couple years to just mediocre numbers and allowing software to flourish while they wait longer to release a successor. Consider that software is where the profit is made and Switch is a software selling BEAST. And with 130m/140m/150m+ install base (and no new next-gen systems coming out to steal the exictement away) Nintendo could sell enormous amounts of software in 2024 and 2025 on the Switch even as HW drops toward 10mil. Like Rol says above, the software pipeline is plenty healthy.
5. With that line of thinking, maybe Nintendo has plenty more big games in the pipeline for the Switch. Maybe in 2023/24/25 we'll get something like Zelda:TotK, Advance Wars, Pikmin 4, Prime remake, Prime 4, DK, 2D Mario, another 3D Mario, another Mario Party, Z:WW/TP, a brand new 2D Zelda, Prime2/3 remasters, another Pokemon Legends game, Wave Race, Star Fox, Kid Icarus, etc. A full library of first party IP including several huge games to keep Switch making Nintendo gobs of money with software through 2024 and into 2025. In this case we might not see Switch 2 until holiday 2025, with Switch perhaps at >160m when successor launches and Nintendo just shipping an extra million or two, mostly Lite's, after that and quickly switching completely over to producing Switch 2's.
Last edited by Slownenberg - on 01 December 2022
