DonFerrari said:
archbrix said:
Makes sense. I mean, Sony clearly has limited stock and the increase in the US was apparent (I actually saw stock available for the first time) so having limited stock for the rest of the world is obvious. I think that folks just got a bit overzealous after hearing that Sony had such a supply increase that many of us thought Sony would have the units available to outsell the Switch by a pretty large amount, which apparently, did not happen. HigHurtenflurst said:
IIRC it was overtracked last holiday period. Can't recall specifics other than that but I think there have been 2-3 large downward adjustments to PS5, but more smaller upward adjustments.
Ultimately it's never going to be perfect (people seem to forget but there have been a number of times when Media Create & Famitsu disagree with each other in Japan to double digit percentages, and they supposedly each track ~60% of the markets directly)
Also although people seem to have it in their mind that the PS5s all immediately sell once "shipped"... it's never going to be that simple, many "shipped" consoles will be held in retail warehouse or in transit for differing periods of time. And while the PS5 has had stock issues, in order for it to get from 'issues' to being widely available it will have to pass through a period of shipped being higher than sold. (even if it still sells out "immediately" it does seem to be easier to purchase one as a normal consumer now than it was 6 months ago)
Meanwhile the Switch is in it's declining period, so I wouldn't see it as unusual if it has the odd quarter where sales are higher than shipping, though normally don't htink it would be significant till it's last couple of years (the whole chip shortage being the main thing complicating that making supply & demand bounce up & down)
Given how close they are in shipped figures for the quarter it's frankly a statistical tie for sales IMO. Switch will probably take the lead for holiday quarter (even if Sony has been stockpiling I doubt it will be THAT much, though I guess we may get an idea after black Friday week) then next year should be PS5 leading the way each quarter. |
Great post, particularly the last paragraph. This holiday marks the end of the Switch's reign at the top of weekly sales. Although I fully expect the Switch to have another great year in 2023, there's no way that it can continue to keep pace with the PS5, save for the release of some fancy new "Pro" model of Switch that reinvigorates sales to another 20m year or something. |
So in 2023 Switch sales won't fall off a cliff? |
Haha, no, I don't expect a cliff. If Nintendo gives the Switch its full support in 2023, I expect ~17m. So far, Zelda and Pikmin are confirmed for next year and we know Prime 4 is confirmed for... sometime. I fully expect something Mario, hopefully some good surprises (like DK!) and then we have the MK tracks as well.
But I do expect ~20m next year for the PS5 (and I don't even think that 2023 will be its peak), so I don't believe that Switch will be able to keep up with that next year unless a new Switch model that proves very popular debuts.
