At this point, almost certainly 75-115m with the closer to the extremities being increasingly unlikely. I don’t think Sony has done anything to increase userbase of PlayStation 5 over Playstation 4, and it has more friction and fewer advantages when compared to the PS4. So, at best, it will maintain most of its ecosystem, but a range of 90-100m will be increasingly more likely. I’d say if it’s good fortune if PS5 goes above 100m, and bad fortune if it goes below 90m. Almost completely out of the question that it’s outside the 75m-115m range unless Sony has a mid-gen killer app, if they do something ridiculous and bomb, or if something happens with the competition to lower the friction. A year or so after Switch 2 is announced, friction will be skyrocket - assuming Nintendo doesn’t pull another N64, Gamecube, 3DS, or Wii U. If Nintendo launches a successful Switch 2 in May 2023, or autumn 2023, then heavy friction will be felt by holiday season 2024 or beginning of 2025 on PS5 sales quickening its sales decline. If Sony releases some surprise killer app, it could drive the curve out further, even cause a massive jump in sales similarly to how Animal Crossing took Switch to new levels during year 4.
I’ll just average it and say ~95m is the most probable range currently.
There, I made a serious answer for once :)
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
