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Kakadu18 on 04 November 2022
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yo33331 said:

It's obvious. Switch begins to lose steam. It's normal it is in it's 6th year. It's not only for the week and for japan. See the whole year since march or april. Switch has been constantly down. It has mere 2-3 exclusions where it received some bumps for a week or two but only that. In this point in time in it's life Switch can't receive big boost with software titles. ( I mean big, like 2019, 2020 or 2021 ones, where Switch's boost to continue through couple of weeks selling more than the norm before that ). It has been constantly down since the spring and even in japan most of the weeks this year are double digits, and when there is nothing interesting for it falls to levels such as ~40, 50 or 60k. The down ratio % will also be going up (it was 30% in some point in the year, then drop to ~20% and now is going up again and will probably finish close to 30% when everything is said and done).
Now even lower .. So low even I wasn't expecting. Of course holiday period is coming in the next weeks till end of the year and it is normal that Switch will get boost both worldwide and in japan. However that boost won't be near 2021 levels, and just like many other consoles every next year and holiday in that matter will be lower and lower.
Last year we had weekly numbers in the holiday period (november and december) most of them doing between 1 and 1.1M. This year they will probably be between 800k and 1M at best. For japan I expect weekly numbers between 100 and 150k. Of course there may be some other fluke week where it reaches maybe 200k just to check it out (since every single holiday till now there were weeks with 200k+ sales) but majority of them will be between 100k and ~ 150k. Something like that. Next year the drop will be even bigger. Both worldwide and japan.

Bold: Splatoon 3 didn't launch that long ago. You can't seriously already have forgotten that there was a big hardware boost for several weeks before and after it's launch. The current hardware number is due to stock issues. In week 15 2020 the Switch only sold 25k units a few weeks after ACNH launched. Stock issues aren't something new. Like how do you even get that idea that software can't give the Switch significant hardware boost anymore?

Bold 2: There were exactly one week in the 40k range and one week in the 30k range and both just recently when stock issues started again. Weeks in the 50 or 60k range happened in every year of the Switch's life and only 2021 didn't have any weeks below 40k.

Now in it's 6th year the Switch is obviously loosing steam but it's legs are incredibly strong nonetheless.

How many units do you think the Switch will have sold in the current week with the Pokémon OLED having just launched?