| yo33331 said:
I am giving a range here. I am not saying it will sell the lowest given number from me. It is range. It may do 1M. Why when someone is doing prediction most people just only get only the lowest (or only the highest, depending on their opinion) numbers ? And also even with 800k prediction this means that switch will sell 100k per week not 50k. Your math isn't right. However I said between 800k and 1M. So why don't take 1M ? I already said that it will hover between 100k and 150k weekly and even I've told it may even have a week reaching 200k just for the record. I am not excluding this possibility. But yeah, numbers around 100k or even better for holiday weeks in japan is very good sales level. Even more when you think of Switch's age. Also as I already stated, software titles don't boost the Switch so much now as they used to. See last 3 years for the system and weeks where big title has launched. Pokemon may do some boost, but it won't be OMG effect. Also this week was the lowest yes, however there are many other weeks that the systems have done sales like 50-60-70k weekly. And okay there are some weeks early in the year where it has done 80k, however do you see the pattern here ? from 80k weekly (we are speaking no software launches here) to 40-50-60k sales week when there is nothing happening. And yes I ironically say when there is no software launches when I said they don't give such a boost. They give some boost. Just the effect is not so powerful as the last 3 years. And will get more and more weak with the time move on because Switch reaches saturation point, and whoever wanted one already have one. We will see soon enough. Also with the way it is going, I can't see Switch making more than 3M for the next year in japan. Even this may be much. |
I specifically stated it'd have to sell an average of 100k in my post, but with next week likely being over 100k and at least one week being almost 200k there would have to be multiple weeks of 50k (or almost all of the weeks aside from those to being 75k) for it to average that way. My math does check out.
If next week is, say, 150k and there is another week with 200k that is 350k with 6 weeks remaining to only sell 450k, which is 75k for the remainder of the weeks (which doesn't make sense) or multiple 50k weeks with some 100k+ weeks. Neither of those make sense.
What's the point of offering a lowest prediction if you don't think it will hit that low? Clearly you do think it's a possibility. I'm saying it won't. Your max should be closer to the min. Your min shouldn't exist. Especially if you think that it will hit 100k weekly with some 150k and 200k. That means it will guaranteed not hit 800k. Your math is what doesn't check out.
When Splatoon 3 themed Switch launched the console sold 180k in Japan and then 130k the week after. So Pokemon will absolutely give it a boost this year because Splatoon 3 did just two months ago.
