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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Chrkeller said:

I'll take your two major points in one link. 

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/

1) Hillary was predicted as the HEAVY favorite according to polls....   

I don't get why pollsters are still throwing this myth around. Would they just have a good look at their own (and other pollsters numbers, and they'd know what's up:

While Trump won the electoral college, Hillary still won the popular vote by about 2%, or almost 3 Million people. Polls taken during the last 2 weeks before the election showed Hillary's support crumbling, fluctuating wildly between -5% and +7% of the popular vote, though most of them between 3% and 4%. While that's a bit higher than what she got in the end, it's still within the margin of error. Heck, if you take the mean value between the extremes, you come with just a measly 1% lead, even less than she carried in the end.

But in their calculations, they took the numbers of the entire last month, which includes also leads of up to 15%. Of course this skews the prediction very much in favor of Hillary despite those numbers being outdated. This is what went wrong with the polling, they looked too far back and had their predictions wrong due to that.

And you aren't concerned that in a span of 2 months her lead went from 15% to 4%?  Seems like a crazy fluctuation within 60 days.  Personally it makes me question how accurate the original 15% was. 

Look, 2016 simply made me question polls and media.  This whole conversation really started when Bandorr falsely and wrongly accused me of being a conservative conspiracy nut.  My point is really simple, because of 2016 I'm just not convinced our predictions are as accurate as we think they are.  It changed my perspective.

Lots people think this November there will be a bunch of SCOTUS backlash....  I'm not convinced.  Time will tell.    



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