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archbrix on 23 September 2022
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Soundwave said:
Norion said:

4-5 months is enough time yeah but something critical you're ignoring with your examples is them being talked about in advance. Both the Switch and PS5 were first talked about well in advance before the full on reveal a few months before launch and the OLED is a hardware revision which are treated differently. Nintendo has said nothing about a Switch successor yet which means if they follow historical precedence that it's not launching soon. Now of course they may not follow that but I don't think it's something one should outright expect especially since when the successor is just a few months away rumours about it will be everywhere.

They were talked about, sure, just like we're talking about Switch 2/Super Switch whatever right now and getting leaks on the processor apparently. 

I don't think these kinds of leaks represent the same kind of exposure that Norion and Rol have mentioned though.  We knew that Nintendo's new system was in the works with a codename and all in early 2015.  Nintendo has specifically said that it is in no hurry to replace Switch with a successor.

Sales evidence supports this too; does it really make sense for Nintendo to come out with Switch's successor - even as a transition system - as early as next year when so many people are just buying their Switch systems for the first time?  That's to say nothing of a chip shortage possibility.  If we do get new hardware next year, it is likely that it will just be a more capable Switch that is clearly in the specs realm of a pro model as opposed to Switch 2.  Launching with ZTotK, I could see that maybe happening to extend the Switch's life even further until a late 2025 Switch 2 release.

What you propose as a transition into Switch 2 is a possibility, as this translation from Nintendo even supports the possibility of that idea:

"The question of whether we will be able to just as smoothly transition from the Nintendo Switch to the next generation of hardware is a major concern for us. Based on our experiences with the Wii, Nintendo DS, and other hardware, it is very clear that one of the major obstacles is how to easily transition from one hardware to the next. To help alleviate this risk, we’re focusing on building long-term relationships with our customers. While we will continue launching new software on the Nintendo Switch, we will also provide services that also use Nintendo Accounts and other IP outside of gaming software. We intend for this to help build a lasting impact with our customers."

While I could see something like this happening where you basically have a cross-gen situation for the first year and a half or so of Switch 2's life, it just doesn't make sense to do that in 2023 coming off of a 20m+ fiscal year.  I'd still say 2024 for this scenario at the earliest.