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It's hard to say because there's a lot of unanswered questions.

What happens if at some point MS just decides to yank most of their non-Minecraft IP catalog from the Playstation and make all of that XBox exclusive?

Call of Duty, Elder Scrolls, etc. etc. all exclusive probably tilts a fair number of players into MS' corner.

Also the long term impact of Game Pass is hard to predict, it may get to a point where it is such an insane value that one seriously can't ignore it when comparing XBox to a Playstation.

The other factor is I don't think Activision-Blizzard is the last big gaming purchase Microsoft makes. Imagine they get EA or Take 2 (gulp).