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At this point, this seems more like a question of when instead or if Ukraine retakes its lost lands. For Russia to win at point, either the West would have to bend or Russia would have to mobilize big time, and at this point, I'm not even sure Russia has the equipment to mobilize. I mean, they can just barely equip what they have in Ukraine now, so what are they going to do if they have even more troops to equip? I'm kind of leaning towards the outcome of this war depending entirely on the West not bending, and even then, the US alone might be able to supply Ukraine sufficiently for it to win, so even Europe bending might not change the outcome.