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Nintendo is definitely making a big deal out of this game. There is both a Splatfest and a tournament in Seattle before the launch of the game. (Not sure if they announced some other tournament for people who don't live in the US.) I don't recall what Nintendo did before the launch of Splatoon 2, but I do know the install base for Switch is a whole lot bigger this year than in 2017.

I do think Splatoon 3 is going to sell even better than Splatoon 2, and I wouldn't be surprised if it makes it into Switch's top 10 (which is getting harder and harder to enter.) Out of Switch's 10m+ sellers this is the youngest franchise, and I think it still has room to grow.