Honestly I always disliked that people predict something while we have no clue whats going to happen next year.
Their are so many 'if' 'can' 'may' possibilities.
If Nintendo comes with a newer version or a new console it will have a huge influence on next year sales.
Can Nintendo ship 4 million consoles?
May some particular game release next year. New mainline DQ game for example exclusive to the Switch.
Can their be a significant price cut.