Famitsu Sales: Week 29, 2022 (Jul 11 - Jul 17)

[peachbuggy]

yo33331 said:

curl-6 said:

The last time I pointed this out it was in global sales, this week I simply noticed and pointed out the percentage to which it was tracking in Japan as of today's numbers. It was an update.

I actually do have some memory problems, so if I repeat myself it's not intentional.

As for your claim the 6th year will finish behind its third, are you referring to in Japan, globally, or both? Cos as far as Japan goes, the subject of this thread, it is currently in the lead by nearly 800k (2.41 million vs 1.66 million) and barring some new factor we don't know about yet, it seems unlikely it will lose all of that in the next 5 months that include both Splatoon 3 and Pokémon Scarlet/Violet.

About the repeating, I notice you are writing it down around every second week or so, on the weekly threads. There is just no need. This is valid and will be valid till september and everyone is seeing it and knows it. It's in that way since the beginning of the year. The holidays is where it will be interesting to watch.

I am saying that in the end it's 6th year won't be bigger, not that it will be weaker than it's 3rd. They will be almost equal (1M or so difference don't really make the one better than the other cuz the difference would be too small.) They will be about equal. And I am talking worldwide. In Japan it will even probably be weaker, cuz 2019 was 4.5M. This year the pace it's going till now with the decline it has and with how strong 2019 become in september onwards I expect Switch to make 4M. At the very best it could reach 4.5M but even then it's 6th year won't be better than it's 3rd. They will be equal. The software at this point in Switch life won't really make difference. If you put this 800k lead with the 2019 total you are telling me that this year will finish almost equal to last year 5.5M ? not gonna happen. It will be signifantly lower than that, as it is now. Why aren't you talking about the 800k deficit it has to 2021 ? Why are you adding those 800k to 2019 numbers but not taking out those 800k from 2021 numbers ? Why only taking the bright side but not the other one ? With how Switch has declined and how the switch got way stronger in 2019 it's way more likely it will finish around 2019 numbers or even lower in the end, than it is to finish close to 2021 numbers.

And the one Splatoon or pokemon won't make the difference. The OLED model last year when Switch had smaller install base didn't make significant boost and now the splatoon or pokemon will ? really ? I doubt it. The best they can do will be to boost 1 or 2 weeks and that's it. But even this I am not sure of cuz 110M is serious number and it's in the saturation point where software can't make a lot of difference for the console sales.

I give you an example. 2021 was also ahead of 2020 WW sales. (and even japan) But at halfpoint 2020 took the lead and made more than 3M more sales in the end. The 2021 lead for little over half a year which isn't small. The same is now happening with 2019 vs 2022. Both worldwide and japan. Only that in japan the possibility of 2019 beating 2022 is bigger. Worldwide as I said will probably be equal or with insignificant difference.

peachbuggy said

You talk as if you know what you're talking about, yet you don't. Last summer you claimed that Switch WW would fall to Xbox series level sales very soon. How did that work out?

The Switch is way clear of 2019 atm and the gap is likely to get bigger! Also, Splatoon 3 and pokemon are coming this year. I would suggest your prediction is based more off wishful thinking than any real logic.

I am not sure I understand you correctly. I never ever said that or compare the Switch to Xbox sales !?

As for the 2019 yes, as I said it's currently ahead because first half of this year is stronger than the weak first half of 2019. But coming september the thing will turn around and they will finish around the same in the end (worldwide) and possibly even behind the 4.5M number for japan. Splatoon and Pokemon coming, okay but the Switch is in point in it's life where saturation hit's and at this number - 110M the software will hardly move any unit's (maybe small boost) but not anything big. We saw last year even the OLED model didn't have any significant boost on the sales (where Switch was with way smaller lifetime sales at that time)

And no my prediction is on based of wishful thinking, it's pure logic. The switch is declining. In japan and worldwide. It's normal to end weaker than last year.

It's almost 3M behind 2021 WW in this point in time and It's decently behind in japan as well. It will finish 18-20M worlwide (around 2019 numbers) and around 4M to 4.5M at very best in Japan.

And also .. you are moving the subject. My post was about repeating every other week that Switch is almost 50% ahead of 2019. We know that. Everyone sees that. There is no need of reminding everyone every two weeks or so. (And as I said that won't be valid after september)

No I am not. The cliff is that the next year will be 15M for the year. It is a cliff from 25M this year.

Also I stated that will do 250k weekly in the beginning of the year, but going further will fall to probably 200k and maybe 150k in the summer.

It can't go from 300k to 150k suddenly .. Heck even the PS4 with the big cliff it didn't went from 250k to 80k suddenly .. It went doing 200k and almost 200k in 2019 to doing 150-180k in 2020, to doing 100k before the holidays, to making 80-50k for the first half of this year .. so it's again gradually and it's again accounted for a cliff. 

This is 1 of your famous "Predictions" from last August, very soon to be proven hilariously wrong.

So it is more like 50/50 if it will reach #3 by end of this year.

And together with the expected switch decline for the next year, switch may do something like 15M next year, so it's not also sure 100% if it will pass PS4 by end of 2022 (which should be around 117M-118M by this time)

Also with the disappointing OLED model revealed, as anyone was waiting for the Switch Pro, now surely the sales won't pick up, as they would if there was real Pro model. One more reason why Switch will probably not make more than 25M this year. And also one more reason why Nintendo may launch the successor sooner than expected.

So basically you are showing one good way the sales for the system can happen, I will show one other not so good way (but pretty realistic one).

by end of 2021 - 100/102M

by end of 2022 - 115M

After this it is too difficult to predict, cuz they may launch successor after which point switch will just fall of a cliff. just like pretty much every console did in the last few generations, and switch will make no more than 10M total after the successor launch. (and as there are rumors that this Pro model now will become Switch 2 there is a good chance they will not wait much, more like 2023 launch)

However if they wait till 2024 switch may reach 125-130M total lifetime, which is still impressive however far far away from the #2 or #1 selling console.

And I will just give an example for every optimist here, with the PS4, they are different consoles obviously, and they have different lifecycle however I am giving an example how the PS4 in 2018 was doing 250-300K per week and no one would believe that in 2 years will have these big drops in sales to 8M in 2020 and to 2M(still questionable) this year. Just like the PS4 death was probably the biggest and the worst death out of all consoles, till now this can happen with every other console too (if the manufacturer don't make the right steps). So just never say never, because everything is possible. Even the haters and no sayers in 2018 were saying a little better numbers for the PS4 ahead than they are now.

If Nintendo launch the successor in 2023 Switch will not pass 130M lifetime.

Another funny "Prediction" from July 2021. Ya know, it's funny how you talk with such authority, like it's a certainty your predictions will come true, when it's clear they don't. An "imo" would be so much better. There are many other wrong "predictions" from you i could find. Now it's been proven there's no logic to your predictions, i put it to you they are based on wishful thinking and also that you are, indeed a Quickrick alt!

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So it is more like 50/50 if it will reach #3 by end of this year.

And together with the expected switch decline for the next year, switch may do something like 15M next year, so it's not also sure 100% if it will pass PS4 by end of 2022 (which should be around 117M-118M by this time)

Also with the disappointing OLED model revealed, as anyone was waiting for the Switch Pro, now surely the sales won't pick up, as they would if there was real Pro model. One more reason why Switch will probably not make more than 25M this year. And also one more reason why Nintendo may launch the successor sooner than expected.

So basically you are showing one good way the sales for the system can happen, I will show one other not so good way (but pretty realistic one).

by end of 2021 - 100/102M

by end of 2022 - 115M

After this it is too difficult to predict, cuz they may launch successor after which point switch will just fall of a cliff. just like pretty much every console did in the last few generations, and switch will make no more than 10M total after the successor launch. (and as there are rumors that this Pro model now will become Switch 2 there is a good chance they will not wait much, more like 2023 launch)

However if they wait till 2024 switch may reach 125-130M total lifetime, which is still impressive however far far away from the #2 or #1 selling console.

And I will just give an example for every optimist here, with the PS4, they are different consoles obviously, and they have different lifecycle however I am giving an example how the PS4 in 2018 was doing 250-300K per week and no one would believe that in 2 years will have these big drops in sales to 8M in 2020 and to 2M(still questionable) this year. Just like the PS4 death was probably the biggest and the worst death out of all consoles, till now this can happen with every other console too (if the manufacturer don't make the right steps). So just never say never, because everything is possible. Even the haters and no sayers in 2018 were saying a little better numbers for the PS4 ahead than they are now.

If Nintendo launch the successor in 2023 Switch will not pass 130M lifetime.

Another funny "Prediction" from July 2021. Ya know, it's funny how you talk with such authority, like it's a certainty your predictions will come true, when it's clear they don't. An "imo" would be so much better. There are many other wrong "predictions" from you i could find. Now it's been proven there's no logic to your predictions, i put it to you they are based on wishful thinking and also that you are, indeed a Quickrick alt!