No, my initial claim was never exact 4M. it was around 4M to 4.5M.
Check my older posts from some weeks ago in the japan weekly threads if you want. For this year when I've made claims I've given 4M to 4.5M everytime. Go check. Here is the same. And no I am not agreeing 4M is low ball. 4M is very possible if the decline continues till october and if Switch reach weeks of 40k and the holidays weeks are noticeably weaker than 2021. 4.5M is my highest bet where Switch can end this year in japan.
So my exact claim is not exact number. No one can tell and know exact number. My claim is 4M to 4.5M where both are possible and also something between them like 4.2M or 4.3M is also possible.
You said you expect 4m. 4.5m would technically be above 2019.
But again, we'll just have to wait and see.