Otter said:
Honestly, the answer is no. Not for any notable period of time and reasoning is below
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Almost all of the really big selling (3m+) games belong to Nintendo: Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Smash, Mario Kart, Splatoon, etc.... Switch even has a Monster Hunter game, and DQ12 will definitely be on a Nintendo platform. Switch has everything. That is the PS5's problem. The only game that will help it significantly will be MH World 2 and even after it releases, PS5 will not sell like PS4 did during the same time period. People are trying to make a big deal about FF16, when it won't even outsell the Kirby game that released this year. Kirby sells decent in Japan, but it is nothing compared to Splatoon, Animal Crossing and Pokemon. Likewise Final Fantasy in Japan is nothing compared to Splatoon, Animal Crossing and Pokemon. That is PS5's big problem. It lacks games that can sell like the top Nintendo games.
We already had a similar situation play out between 3DS and Vita. Vita got plenty of games, but it didn't have the heavy hitters that the 3DS had. PS5 is in a similar situation. It will get games, but they aren't going to sell like top Switch games. PS5 has the same problem that many losing consoles have had in the past. They just can't compete with the competition. It's not the chip shortage that is the PS5's main problem in Japan. It's main problem is that it is competing with the Switch.
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Seeing major improvements in PS5's situation does not mean it besting Nintendo in any category. Historically PS big hitters are third party... There are hardly any third party games with amazing legs, even on the Switch. We have Minecraft, Momotaro, Monster Hunter, a few indies like Humans fall flat. The charts will be continue to be under Nintendo/Pokemon's spell for the forseeable future but that doesn't equate to Playstation doomed.
Lets look at Playstation 2's top selling games, baring in mind it sold 20m versus PS4's 9.5m & that the PS4 has digital sales which are not accounted for. We all consider the PS2 to be a huge success in Japan but its software doesn't come close to the Switch:
1. 3,555,000 PS2 Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King
2. 2,325,000 PS2 Final Fantasy X
3. 2,323,000 PS2 Final Fantasy XII
4. 1,961,000 PS2 Final Fantasy X-2
5. 1,615,000 PS2 Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride
6. 1,439,000 PS2 Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec
7. 1,197,000 PS2 Dynasty Warriors 4
8. 1,129,000 PS2 Kingdom Hearts II
9. 1,117,000 PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 6: International
10. 1,100,000 PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 7
Playstation has never had an abundance of mega sellers, that is simply not a metric to meassure its success against. PS4's userbase is about half of what PS2's was and that is more or less reflected in its top sellers. The point is that the expectation for Playstation hardware (around 10m) does not require games that compete with what Nintendo is doing. Nintendo's output is just unmatched and Sony has never come close.
In a scenario in which the Playstation 5 more or less stays equal with PS4, you'd see 2 or 3 1m+ sellers and the an abundance of games around the 500-800k mark. That doesn't spell trouble, it just reflects that market Playstation has been working with since the PS3's release.
Comparing PS5 to the Vita is also misjudged. The Vita's biggest game was a port of Persona 4. There was nothing on Vita comparable to mainline Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest etc. Playstation will get all of those and much more. Elden ring was a break outs success and there will likely be more of those titles to come.
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