haxxiy on 06 July 2022
There is an emerging BA.2 lineage that might, or might not, have a transmission advantage over BA.4 and BA.5.
BA.2.75 has the core BA.2 spike with mutations at sites K147E, W152R, F157L, I210V, G339H, G446S, N460K, reversion of R493Q. R493Q is also present in BA.4/5, G446S was present in BA.1. Antigenically it's halfway between BA.1 and BA.2 and quite close to it unlike BA.4 and BA.5, which seems to suggest its advantage is just tranmissibility rather than immune escape.
This would suggest BA.4/5 will be replaced before winter, and it'd wouldn't be such a bad deal, since the BA.1 vaccine should work much better against it than against BA.4/5.
