Switch Sales Top 108 Million - Global Hardware May 15-21

[The_Liquid_Laser]

archbrix said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

"Software sells hardware".  I don't care how many people argue against me.  It doesn't change reality.  Reality is still that software sells hardware, and hardware doesn't sell itself.  The mass market will not pay $500 extra for a PS5 if they can play the same games on a system they already own.

I fully agree with your closing paragraph as a general point, but cross-gen won't be a thing forever and, regarding the mass market, the PS5 won't be $500 later in its life.

I do think the jury is still out on the PS5 passing 100m with all of the progress Microsoft has made and it was never going to reach PS4's sales, but let's put things into perspective:

As you said, a lot of PS5 content can still be played currently on PS4.  Also, the console is still at its highest price with the smallest library it will ever have from here on out.  We both know that a system's biggest selling years come later in its life.  And finally, the chip shortage is obstructing the system's full selling potential at the moment.  All of this and the PS5 is still already 1/4 of the way to 80m in under two years, with its successor not arriving until 2027 at the earliest.

I don't think PS5 can get anywhere near 100m, because it's competition is too strong this generation.  In Japan+ROW it is going to be down a lot, because these regions are become almost entirely for the Switch.  I think PS5 will be at best 1/2 of PS4 numbers in these regions.  I am combining them together though, because systems in Japan seem to be shipped out to other nations.  So Japan may have semi-decent PS5 numbers (i.e. better than half of PS4), but they are going to be lost in the ROW total.  So putting them together it will be 1/2 or less.

In the Americas, PS4 was not that far ahead of XB1, and X|S is fairing even better than PS5.  PS5 is also going to lose some market share to the Switch too, but not as much as in the Pacifiic-Asian nations.  However, since PS5 is losing to two different systems, it's total in the Americas is still only going to be about half of PS4.

In Europe PS5 will still do fairly well.  It will be down some from PS4 numbers, but it's not going to get hit nearly as hard as it does in other regions.

Overall, I think saying 80m for PS5 is fairly generous.  That assumes it doesn't make major screw ups.  However, I think these cross gen titles are not a good idea at all.  That is the sort of thing that can drive them down significantly below 80m.