Can The Switch become the best selling video game console in Japan?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Darwinianevolution said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

So far the number of software titles released on Switch has increased every year, and I think that is going to happen again this year.  So, I agree with what you are saying.  I want Switch to have more third party games, and it seems like they are coming.  For Japan, in particular, Switch is really now the only viable platform, so I think most development teams are in the process to converting to making only Switch games.  That takes a few years for that to happen though.

I'm not sure if that is really true. Most of the big japanese publishers have been very reticent to release their titles on the Switch, and it's been years now. Level 5, Atlus and Capcom supported the 3DS way more, Sega has mostly focused on Sonic and older ports, Konami is a no show because Konami... The ones that've been the most consistent has been SE and Spike Chunsoft, and with all of the SE buyout rumours, I'm not sure how long that is going to last.

The number of new releases continues to increase each year in Japan.  (In the table below 2017 means the FY ended March 2017.)

Japan FY	hardware	software	New titles
2017	0.6	0.89	9
2018	3.78	12.26	74
2019	3.85	21.48	215
2020	5.21	32.56	260
2021	6.6	45.02	291
2022	5.19	42.14	327
total	25.23	154.35	1176

Here is why I think it will continue to increase.  It seems to take a Japanese development team about 4 years to develop an original title for the Switch.  For the first couple of years Switch didn't get great third party support compared to the 3DS (although it was pretty good compared to the Wii U).  I think most third party publishers held back because Switch was a new concept, so the first couple of years were slow to get new titles and even when they did it was mostly a port of an older game.  (Ports can be developed quicker than original titles.)  Then in 2021 we got titles like Monster Hunter Rise, Bravely Default 2 and Rune Factory 5.  These are sequels to 3DS games.  They were always coming to Switch, but they didn't get greenlit until 2017 when it was obvious that Switch wouldn't be a total dud.  This year we got Triangle Strategy which is 4 years after Octopath Traveler.  For an original Japanese third party game, you have to figure there will be a four year delay between the project being greenlit and its actual release.

This year Switch's new third party games will be based on how people saw the Switch performing in 2018.  It was selling decently well in Japan, but it was significantly behind the 3DS launch aligned.  In 2019, it was gaining ground on the 3DS, and in 2020 is when Switch sales really exploded.  That means that 2023 should see an noticeable increase in new Switch third party titles and we'll see an increase again in 2024.  I also expect the number of new titles will increase this year as well, but it will mostly be due to ports.

People have said that Switch lacks good support for a while now, but the data suggests it is already getting good support.  The number of third party titles continues to increase each year, and in Japan the Switch has a monopoly.  Third party developers may appear to be behaving irrationally, but that is because it takes game developers 4 years to react to Switch's sales trajectory.  When you take that into account, the developers actually are behaving rationally, but they are behaving rationally with respect to how the Switch was selling 4 years ago.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 17 May 2022