I want to preface with I am fully aware that this game has the potential to reach huge numbers, but if I were to make a prediction, I'd say it probably won't. The install base on Switch is a lot different than what they had during the Wii days, even if it is technically bigger. I don't think a game like this has the same reach that Wii Sports did back in 2006-2010. Certain similar games of that era have proven to be successful, like Ring Fit Adventure for example, but in that case I feel it's a huge evolution to Wii Fit and still feels relevant today. It's the kind of experience that crowd would still be looking for and is catering to a modern audience as well. Switch Sports isn't as much an evolution as it is just the "next game" in the series, with likely some improved controls thanks to the Joy-Con. Wii Sports was revolutionary for being the game that introduced motion controls and even gaming in general to a massive audience, so 16 years later just being a similar kind of game, I don't see it hitting that kind of success, even with a decent marketing push and budget price, unless they decide to bundle it in with the Switch later on or something.
That said, I of course still think it will be successful, I just don't see it reaching even the top 10 list on Switch. It will easily hit 5-7m between nostalgia buys and those looking for a fun and casual sports party game like this.
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