drkohler said:
I'd guess (and that is the only thing one can do, noone can look into the brain of Putin) that Putin was sure he'd win the war withîn days, even using "unprofessional" troups and equipment. Just sheer numbers. Now his generals had the same problem as the German generals had in ww2. They had a militarily incompentent leader, and contradicting him would mean instant firing squad. So the Russian generals followed orders and failed miserably (probably they knew that right from the start). No Russian generals or battlefield commanders have been made to disappear, so the blame game hasn't even started in Moscow, which tells us Putin still has full control. Now Putin (he's not dumbat all) uses the second method, terror against the population. There is no question time will wear down the Ukranian army and population, and more and more people will flee. If anyone thinks those Ukranians left behind are all heroes and will go into a taliban-style warfare, no, that is not going to happen. And suppressing whole nations is pretty much a hobby of the Russian rulers. Simply and steadily destroying the Ukranian infrastructure reduces own losses and basically empties the attacked country over time. Unless a coup happens in Moscow (and it isn't clear what would happen after that), Putin can destroy the Ukrania with whatever methods he wishes. Sad but factual. The only counter argument to impress Putin is brutal force. There are ways to do that. None are nice. Economical warfare? Putin doesn't bother for a few Russian bank being shut down. He has connections to over 40 African banks that do his trades. And there are too many countries that are deppendent on Russian wheat and gas/oil.. |
Time is really not on Putin side. Shelling cities only make the people hate Russia more not less just like US found out just shelling and bombing in Iraq fueled ISIS and other such groups because once you generate that type of hate it becomes a generation type of thing. Reducing Ukraine to rubble also does not serve long term success because the more civilians you kill, the less likely you keep those other nations willing to stay by your side.
The longer the war goes, the bigger the cost on Russia. They still have that huge convoy that cannot be moved sitting there like like a duck out of water. They still have not managed to take the skies and food and fuel is huge issue. On top of that you have constricts making up a large part of your army which means they are not even close to giving a crap about Putin ambition. The whole thing is a mess and I highly doubt Putin thought he would get the type of international push back that Russia has received. If he was going by the sanctions that the US did during Obama term, then I am sure he got a real shock at the severity that is coming now. The world is getting tired of his BS and they are ramping up the cost. Yes, these sanctions will not stop him any time soon but they put an a lot of pressure on everyone else whether they want to continue down this road. Either way none of this is going to be solved anytime soon, this will be years in development and measures to stop Russia aggression. I know people want hasty solutions but there really is none.
