Animal Crossing NH was a rare beast, in a rare year to boot, so, yeah...
Regarding MHR, it launched at the end of March, so April saw a boost from its sales. This year, Kirby at the end of March should keep April pretty healthy until Switch Sports launches at the end of the month, so May's sales should reflect that nicely. Then in early June we get Strikers as well.
Where I think we'll see 2022 make big strides in Japan especially is Q2 (July-Sep). Last year, the Switch had Skyward Sword, Wario Ware and Cruis'n Blast in that time frame in addition to many people waiting for the OLED, which accounted for a modest September. This year, the Switch has Splatoon 3 (summer) which will boost sales in Japan more than the three aforementioned titles put together. And September will have Xenoblade Chronicles 3.
Switch hype will be soaring this year. Let's just hope there's enough stock to suffice.
ah yeah, i'm sure 2022 as a whole will fare pretty well with such an awesome lineup! will probably end up around 5 mil, depending on stock, and doing a lot of catching up in q2 as you said.
i was thinking more specifically around end of march, and how big of a spike kirby in particular will create. just a thought seeing that awesome annual weekly sales graph, and thinking how popular kirby is in japan. super interesting times ahead! :D