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For NSW 2022, it might be useful to focus on what kind of lead it can accumulate against 2019 up till the NSW-L launch, as it definitely won't compete with 2019's post-Lite numbers.

2019 01-37: 2.08M
2019 38-52: 2.41M

2020 01-37: 3.77M
2020 38-52: 2.18M

2021 01-37: 3.78M
2021 38-52: 1.80M

2022 38-52 I think will be down 800-1,000K from 2019, so if it can hit ~3M through 37 weeks (20% down from 2020 & 2021), I think it'll have a decent shot at keeping above 2019's 4.5M sales.