The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Slownenberg]

Possible but I don't think Nintendo will keep Switch going for long enough.

That said, there is a clear path to make this happen. Don't launch successor until holiday 2025.
And in the meantime actually do hardware price cuts in the final years, do one more new model revision, and load up on the games including MK9 on Switch instead of as a launch title for the successor. There's a ton of games people are still waiting for and wanting that could easily fill up a few more years with big releases. Combine that with the aforementioned price cuts and new model, and do the Nintendo Select's game discounts dropping a ton of older Switch 1st party games to $30. I bet plenty of '17/'18 Switch owners would pick up a newer model Switch either OLED or the hypothetical next model if Nintendo makes it clear (by doing another model and releasing MK9 on Switch) that the Switch is staying passed 2024.

In a word, all they'd have to do is get aggressive. They haven't actually tried to be aggressive in several generations, and with the Switch they haven't needed to because it still crushes the competition after 5 years, but they could totally get to 160m by being aggressive from 2023 to 2025 with their Switch business strategy.

More likely though they'll end the Switch a bit early in 2024 and let it die off in the 140 millions. But who knows maybe they are actually serious about a really long life for Switch like they keep telling us every year.