The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[xMetroid]

Wman1996 said:

It's doable. 1.5 to 2 years ago I would've said it's too high of a prediction. And 4 years or more ago I would've called it hysterical and pretty much pie in the sky.
Nintendo is a very tough to corporation to predict regarding their software, hardware, services, etc. They could already release Switch 2 in mid to late 2023 for all we know and give Switch the 3DS treatment you mentioned at best. And if Switch is already replaced in the second half of 2023, it will probably finish around 130-140 million. But if it's replaced in March 2024 like I think it will be, it will probably finish with 140-150 million or so units sold.
My point is that Switch will probably sell around 10 million units once its successor launches because Nintendo will likely want to focus as much manufacturing on Switch 2 and Switch 2 will probably be popular right out of the gate.

I doubt they will keep the Switch on the market as long as the 3DS when the successor comes out. Wii U was a massive failure and 3DS was the system keeping them afloat. Switch wasn't necessarily going to pick up immediately, so the 3DS was kept around to assure some kind of cushion in case they need it. 

Successor will probably be a Switch 2.0, so why would they keep the cheap regular model on the market as long. That's why i don't see the successor for a while unless they count it as a successor and a part of the Switch family, which is something they have been hinting at.