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IcaroRibeiro on 03 February 2022
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Chrkeller said:
Norion said:

I'm not surprised by the hardware boost being much lower compared to the last major Pokemon releases but just under 100k almost 5 years in is still strong and Arceus is doing amazing.

Think of it this way, the Switch should do around 20m this year so the decline in 2023 and onwards would have to be massive to stop around there. The successor would have to release in Spring next year to make that possible basically.

So if next year the Switch does 10 million, 50% drop, is that a cliff?  I could see 20 million this year, 10 next and 5 after.  Puts it around (ballpark) 135 million total.  

It is. DS declined from 19.5 million (2010) to 6.5 million (2011) but 3DS was released in Q1 of 2011 which destroyed DS sales

The odds for a Switch 2 coming in Q1 2023 are... low to not say impossible. If Q1 2023 was a remote possibility Nintendo would be teasing new hardware by now. Q4 2023 is the earliest and even this is not guaranteed, thus Switch sales wouldn't be cannibalised to yield such a massive decline 

21 million (2022) and 14 million (2023) are a more realistic estimate even with a Switch 2 launching in Q4 2023 which I indeed don't believe it's happening (Q4 2024 more likely)