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Slownenberg on 03 February 2022
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Wow. Software incredible.
And hardware 10+ million as we've come to expect from Switch holiday quarters.

Switch hardware did well and looks undertracked on here (comparing to PS5, PS5 current sales on the front page are 1.23m higher than end of '21 official numbers, while Switch sales on front page are actually 0.34 UNDER end of '21 official numbers, so PS5 may or may not be overtracked but Switch is definitely undertracked).

MK8D just had a completely insane quarter. Again reiterating the point for the millionth time that MK9 will be a Switch 2 launch title. MK8D looks likely to hit 60 million when it's all over, and perhaps 70 million including the Wii U MK8.

Pokemon BD/SP just put up an insane first quarter and is looking to blow by all Pokemon games under 20 million, so we should surely expect Legends Arceus to do the same. Sw/Sh now second best selling pokemon ever and even Let's Go is starting to get close to that 15-17 million range that houses a bunch of previous Pokemon games.

Almost all Switch's main sellers did amazing. The Mario Party Superstars is a bit under what I expected though. Looks like it will be a solid 10+ million seller but perhaps not 15 million. Meanwhile the first Super Mario Party is closing in on eventually topping 20 million.

And Metroid Dread....wow! 100k away from Prime's record after its first quarter. I'm guessing sales have dropped off a ton by now but Dread will set a new Metroid sales record far above the rest. Should at very least hit 4 million. Extremely well deserved and gives me hopes that MP4 will be a 5+ million seller.

Smash, Zelda, Sw/Sh, and Mario Odyssey are all moving nicely up through the 20 millions. Smash and Zelda with identical legs and both careening towards eclipsing 30 million (Smash this year, Zelda probably first quarter of next year).

Ring Fit continuing its gradual long trek towards 20 million. I do think it'll hit this by the end, achieving Wii Fit level numbers globally. Something I'm sure nobody thought was possible when it launched.

I think Z:SS leveling off even below the Z:LA remake numbers shows that the time for old school 3D Zelda is dead. Although that was a nice revivial for SS and the Switch sales have already nearly surpassed the original Wii game's sales.
Non-open world Zelda thoughts for the future: hopefully we still get a TP/WW HD double pack as both of those games are more desired than SS so that'd be an easy 5+ million selling port for Nintendo. But even though linear 3D Zelda is dead now hopefully there is still a future for new top-down 2D Zeldas (one per gen would be nice) since the LA remake showed better performance than the SS remaster.

Finally there's the Mario ports. 3D World selling very well and looking to pass 10 million soon, it should be the 15th first party Switch game to do that. And NSMBUD continues to put up solid numbers despite being a port of an okay game that feels stale (opinion here) and was released as an afterthought with little fanfare. Obviously an actual new 2D Mario is gonna hit the Switch at some point, I'm assuming 2023 as '24 would be very late in Switch's life cycle and wouldn't allow it to have legs, and if that game is a fresh series that brings some fresh gameplay/art style to 2D Mario that's another 20+ million seller guaranteed. A 2D Mario seems to be the one colossal Switch game we still haven't even heard about yet. Hopefully we get an announcement for it this year.