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archbrix on 29 January 2022
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kenjab said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

You've got to realize why these numbers are declining.  It is because Nintendo has taken away little bites during Gen 7 and Gen 8.  During Gen 7 the Wii ate into XB + PS sales during the early years, but then a lot of these people came back over to the XBox360 because of Kinect.  The result is that the Wii only took a small bite in the end.  For the Gen 8 consoles, the Switch took a bite into their sales, mostly during 2019 and 2020.  Neither of these systems had great tail end sales.  They probably could have avoided this problem by dropping their price below $300, but when the Switch is the same price, it looks like a better buy.

Expect Nintendo to take a really big bite this time around.  You shouldn't be looking for Gen 9 PX+XB to be up.  You should be looking for a big drop.

I'm sorry, but no.  Nintendo has nothing to do with this.  If so, the PS5 + XBS would already be significantly down from the previous gen LTD, since it's during the peak of the Switch.  But it's slightly up, with PS5s and Series Xs still selling out the moment they become available.  The Switch is a great console with great games, but its library is very different from PS/XBox so I don't think one replaces the other.

The main reason 8th gen is below 7th gen is that the pandemic forced MS and Sony to focus on 9th gen and stop making 8th gen consoles quicker than usual. This is the first gen since 6th gen, if not ever, that both consoles launched without problems or other issues that makes them less appealing. So I would expect both to sell at least as well as their 8th gen counterparts, and thus the overall 9th gen number to increase.

How much growth are you expecting this gen?  Even if the PS/XB ecosystem reaches the 180m+ of the 6th generation, I'm of the opinion that Xbox is going to see significant growth over last gen, including taking some of those 117m PS4 unit sales from Sony this time.  The PS5 is on fire right now but so is Xbox Series and at some point, the better Xbox Series does, the lower PS5 does.  Surely Xbox Series will fare much better than XB1, but unless this generation lasts an extra long time, I think PS5 is going to have its work cut out for it in reaching the PS4's total.