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Amnesia said:

312K --> 196K

Call this "chip shortage" or whatever. For me this is the beginning of the end, next machine announced beginning of 2023.

Makes sense, but don't forget that a price cut can still prolong it. And in other regions like Europe the Switch seems to have the potential for a longer life than in Japan, since it had it's biggest week ever in Europe just recently. The next machine will likely be announced or at least teased in 2023, but not necessarily at the start of the year.