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I think it has a decent chance to hit 20 million. I don't think it'll come anywhere close to SS but it should beat all those 16m/17m games.
I would think it'll hit 10 million this quarter and be at 15 million by end of the year. Another 5 million the rest of its life is possible.

Seems to be taking the series in a fresh new direction. Even if it's not the full blown open world that people were probably hoping for. But the game looks cool.

The only possible wrench I could see is that they made the bizarre choice to release it two months after the DP remake, so it's possible pokemon fans aren't gonna feel like buying two Pokemon games in a row. This game would have made much more sense as a holiday '22 release.