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I think it will probably be 2024.  Not only is Switch still selling great, but chip shortages will probably elongate this generation.  That also makes 2025 a possibility.  On top of that it is clear Nintendo is going to have a lot big software releases next year.  If they were releasing in 2023, then they would just save most of that software for the next system.

One likely event is that they aim for a holiday 2024 release, but then they push it back to early 2025.  Chip shortages and software delays could definitely make something like this happen.