The IHME just released their Omicron projections, based on British, Danish, Norwegian, and South African data.
https://www.healthdata.org/covid/video/insights-ihmes-latest-covid-19-model-run
Some highlights include:
* 3 billion estimated Omicron infections in the next 2 - 3 months (doubling the number of infected so far)
* 90% of infections are asymptomatic
* 90% lower infection hospitalization rate (do not mistake for the case hospitalization rate)
* 97% lower infection fatality rate
This will translate to a much lower burden in healthcare but, since the number of infections is so great, some countries that have escaped relatively unscathed will see hospital surges like they haven't yet or match their worst.
The first place to peak outside of Africa will likely be New York City, though London possibly isn't far behind. According to another model, Covidestim, the infection numbers in NYC are absurd right now. Not even the first surge in March 2020 can compare.
