Switch Nears 100M, PS5 Tops 16M - Global Hardware Dec 4 to 11

[zorg1000]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

zorg1000 said:

No, look at the way it’s framed.

He’s not saying demand is high enough to be up YoY but due to the ongoing chip shortage there’s a high chance it won’t be met.

He’s questioning how I think it could be down ~10% YoY and that it would require a shortage beyond what he believes is possible for that to happen.

I never said 25-26m was impossible.  I said that the chip shortage would have to be severe for everyone.  Look at how PS5 has been selling in Japan.  They had two weeks where PS5 was only about 1/200th of the market.  That only happens when the chip shortage is really severe.  

25-26m is what Switch sells when the chip shortage is really severe.  It means that it isn't only OLED in short supply.  Even the far less popular Lite model is in short supply too.  The chip shortage is really severe, and that is why Switch is only selling 25-26m.

You didn’t say impossible but it sure as hell wasn’t what you expected.

This wasn’t unknown info in late October when we had that discussion. Worldwide chip shortage had been going on all year and continuing throughout 2022 was already being mentioned. So you were saying it would only happen if the thing that was already happening happened.

But the shortage for Switch in particular is not nearly as severe as you make it out to be. Look at Japan, it has been down YoY for the last few weeks without shortages of any model. Switch also had record sales in Europe last month so I have a hard time believing it was incredibly hard to find and I haven’t heard any reports of shortages there either.

Really the US is the only major region that you can argue is having massive shortages.