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src on 21 December 2021
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shikamaru317 said:
src said:
  • No dude. 16M this FY, meaning 16+7.5 = 23.5M LTD this FY. 23M next FY, meaning 23+23.5 = 46.5M LTD next FY
  • We know the strength of these IPs from how much they sold even prior to MS going F2P sub. TLOU, GoW, UC have all reached 20M and one of these can easily outsell the entirety of the list you mentioned. Spiderman was actually the fastest and largest selling out of them all, without a doubt its 20M.
  • Sony has 23 dev teams from my count, 3 partnered studios. Its hardly a big gap and they're buying as well.
  1. Yeah, both of those numbers seem doubtful to me. PS5 will need to sell about 6m over the course of 4m months to hit 23.5m shipped lifetime before the end of March, last VGC week they sold 428k, assuming the rest of the December weeks are also about 400k, PS5 will be at around 17.2m sales end of 2021. They would need to sell around 400k console per week from January-March 2022 to hit 22.5m sold through, 23.5m shipped by the end of March. Before the Holiday the PS5 weekly production was around 250k per week as I recall, far short of 400k per week. As for that 2nd numbers, 23m next financial year, that sounds insane to me, most experts are predicting that the semi-conductor shortage will last throughout all of 2022 and into early 2023, how are Sony supposed to increase from 16m production in 2021 to 23m production in 2022 while the shortages are on-going? That just doesn't sound feasible to me. Sony already adjusted their estimates down once, I suspect they will again before long.
  2. My point is that IP's can grow, we can't judge how well games like Fable reboot, Perfect Dark reboot, and Hellblade 2 will sell based on the performance of earlier games in the series. A perfect case and point is the Witcher franchise, Witcher 2 sold just 6m copies between it's 2011 launch and 2015 when Witcher 3 released. Witcher 3 has now sold over 30m copies. Franchises can grow in popularity over time, just look at Uncharted, Uncharted 4 sold more than double the copies that earlier Uncharted games sold. In fact each main Fable game that has released so far has grown in sales over the previous, from about 2.5m on Fable 1, to 4.3m on 2, to 5.1m on 3, for all we know Fable reboot from Playground could emulate the recent strong sales of Playground's Forza Horizon 5, doubling Fable 3 in sales and quadrupling Fable 3 in player count from Gamepass.
  3. Well, let's look at the 2 in terms of AAA teams. Sony has 2 AAA teams at Insomniac and 2 at Naughty Dog last I checked, they have 1 AAA team at SSM, 1 at Bend, 1 at Bluepoint, 1 at Guerilla Games, 1 at Sony San Diego (though their MLB series is no longer Sony exclusive), and 1 at Sucker Punch. By my count, that is 10 AAA teams for Sony. MS meanwhile has 1 AAA team at 343, Coalition, The Initiative, inXile, Ninja Theory, Obsidian, Rare, Turn 10, id, and Machine, and 2 AAA teams at Playground, Arkane, Bethesda, Zenimax Online, and Tango. By my count that is 20 AAA teams for MS currently, though 2 of them are working on games that will stay multiplat, Elder Scrolls Online and Fallout 76. MS still had the advantage in terms of AAA 1st party quantity over Sony, we'll have to see how those numbers change over the next few years as MS and Sony make more acquisitions and build up more of their current studios with additional teams or expand current teams/studios from AA to AAA size.

Insomniac have 2-3 (RC, Spiderman, VR), ND has at least 2-3 (TLOUIII, TLOU Factions, New IP), SSM has 2 (Cory new IP, GOW), GG has 2 (MP game, Horizon), your info is outdated. Housemarque, Media Molecule, London Studio, Firesprite (has 2-3), Polyphony Digital, VASG (rumoured).

Like I said, the strength of output is more important.  A few of Sony's IPs are so strong now they outsell half of MS's catalogue. Playstation sells 60M 1st party games in 1 year. Over this generation they have sold 250M+ games.

At this point MS is playing massive catchup and despite buying a lot of studios they haven't found big hitters. Without Bethesda they would have perhaps 1: Forza Horizon. Halo has declined so massively it sells 5 million now, Gears is even lower. ES and Fallout are really all they have in terms of 20M sellers and they take like 5 years to come out with one game. We're going to get 3-4 Spiderman games before 1 Elder Scrolls game.