shikamaru317 said:
Wait, Sony only plans to ship 23m consoles lifetime by the end of March 2023? I could have sworn that 23m lifetime estimate was for the end of March 2022. Well they should easily hit 23m lifetime by the end of March 2023, Xbox might even hit 23m lifetime by then as well, considering they are already over 10m based on VGC numbers and will probably sell at least another 1m over the course of December considering how big Series S shipments have been these final 2 weeks before Christmas (been in stock for more than a week straight on Amazon US now, and outselling Switch OLED there). Meaning Xbox would only need to ship about 12m consoles over the course of 15 months from January 2022 to March 2023 to hit 23m lifetime by the end of March 2023, should be doable as long as they have some good production contracts; Starfield will be capable of moving alot of Xbox's next Holiday, especially if MS is smart and bundles it with Series S and Series X and/or drops to Series S to $250 next Holiday. I could see MS hitting 23m lifetime by the end of March 2023 and Sony maybe even hitting 33m lifetime by then personally, but alot depends on what production will look like for each of them this year, maybe the semi-conductor shortage will get worse in 2022 instead of better. Xbox vs PS exclusive sales comparisons are kind of pointless is a Gamepass world, MS cares about player counts now, not sales. But I think some of those games have potential for both big sales and big player counts though Gamepass. Fable 3 sold 5m+ copies on 360, and there is potential for this upcoming Fable reboot to grow the series to new heights, considering the series is going open world and is being helmed by Playground Games, a studio renowned for both their high metacritic scores and their technical proficiency. Playground's Forza Horizon 4 reached 24m players as of a year ago and is rumored to be close to 30m players now, could a this new Fable by them reach 30m players lifetime as well? Hellblade 1 wasn't a huge seller, only moving around 2m units lifetime, but the two Hellblade 2 trailers released so far have really caught alot of people by surprise, the 1st one got many millions of views on Youtube and this 2nd one was considered to be one of the best games shown on the 2021 Game Awards, I wouldn't be surprised if Hellblade 2's player counts at least quadruple the sales of Hellblade 1. As for Avowed, many RPG fans have been hungry for a new Elder Scrolls for a long time, and Avowed could prove to be a good way to whet the appetite of those Elder Scrolls fans, considering the similarities between the two (Obisidian and Bethesda having worked together in the past, both having 1st person combat with the ability to wield both spells and swords in different hands, both being medieval fantasy, etc.). Perfect Dark, at the height of it's popularity, was one of Rare's biggest sellers, and MS has been amassing top tier AAA talent to build this reboot, it could potentially prove to be quite big. And of course those are only 4 of the games we are likely to see from Xbox during the middle years of this generation. Other games we can expect to see from Xbox's 23 studios and 30+ teams during those middle years include id's next project (rumored to be a new Quake), State of Decay 3, Compulsion's new IP, Double Fine's first Xbox exclusive, the next game from Tango's 2nd team (rumored to be The Evil Within 3), inXile's new AAA RPG, The Outer Worlds 2, Contraband, and perhaps some surprise exclusives coming from 2nd/3rd party studios that haven't even been announced or leaked yet. Sony has big exclusives, I'll give you that much, Uncharted, The Last of Us, Spider-Man, Horizon, and God of War have each proven to be big sellers, with at least one game in each of those series rumored to be over 20m sales now as of 2021. But, those big blockbusters also take a long time to develop, which means some of those developers may only release 1 or 2 games at most this entire generation. Xbox clearly has a 1st party advantage in terms of output capabilities, MS has 23 studios now and 30+ individual teams between those 23 studios, and they may acquire more studios soon. Xbox may soon double the number of AAA teams that Sony has. And it's not like Xbox doesn't have big series of their own, Halo Infinite and Forza Horizon 5 have both already proven themselves to be big sellers, and Bethesda will be releasing 2 games this generation, Starfield and Elder Scrolls 6, both games that are capable of 20m+ sales on Xbox and PC combined most likely, considering how well Bethesda's Fallout 4 and Skyrim sold. |
- No dude. 16M this FY, meaning 16+7.5 = 23.5M LTD this FY. 23M next FY, meaning 23+23.5 = 46.5M LTD next FY
- We know the strength of these IPs from how much they sold even prior to MS going F2P sub. TLOU, GoW, UC have all reached 20M and one of these can easily outsell the entirety of the list you mentioned. Spiderman was actually the fastest and largest selling out of them all, without a doubt its 20M.
- Sony has 23 dev teams from my count, 3 partnered studios. Its hardly a big gap and they're buying as well.
Mandalore76 said:
I work in logistics, and everything I'm hearing is that the Global Supply Chain Crisis is expected to continue throughout 2022. So, I'd temper expectations about how many more next gen consoles will be available next year than they were able to pump out this year.
If getting outsold 2 to 1 by the Nintendo Switch during Black Friday week, and outsold 3 to 1 by the Switch the week after (while selling less than 2,000 units in all of Japan the same week) is "hitting all their FY targets", that should tell you something about what to expect during another supply constrained year. As the newcomer on the market in its 2nd holiday in 2018, the Switch was within a few hundred thousand of PS4 during Black Friday, and separated by less than a hundred thousand the week after, and then overtook the PS4 every week by a significant margin for the remainder of the year. That's what you would have expected the PS5 to be doing right now if there were no supply issues. Going back to the PS4's 2nd holiday in 2014, it was selling an average of 725,778/week throughout December. The PS5 averaged 413,429/week so far this month. That's over 300,000 behind per week so far this month. So again, I would temper your expectation regarding 2022 being a record setting year for PlayStation. I don't base this on demand, or what Sony hopes, but on the realism of the Global Supply Chain Crisis and the Semiconductor Shortage. |
- it is but chip procurements are sorted a year in advance, so if something has changed Sony will immediately notify investors in the nearest quarter meeting.
- Your second paragraph makes no sense. SW is estimated by Nintendo to be 24M this FY, PS5 is 16M so it was expected to get outsold in its first full year. Next FY PS5 is 23M, SW will be a decline (it declined 14% this year) so PS5 is expected to outsell SW next year lol
- can things change? Yes, and we will know next Q. Only Sony knows how its chip orders are doing.
