By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
SvennoJ on 17 December 2021
Edit Thread
JRPGfan said:
LurkerJ said:

I feel like the UK was heading towards another lockdown with or without omicron floating around, but to soften the blow, there needed to be some media buzz about a new variant. Why not just stick to the actual numbers of hospitalisations and ITU admissions? the capacity of the healthcare system is the only a metric that should be used to justify lockdowns, not some variant that we'd be only so lucky if it infected everyone spreading natural immunity and only causing a mild infection.

Theres some truth to that, imo.
Most places will be doing a soft lockdown, in order to slow, spread rates.

Omikron is like 8 times as transmitable as delta was.

The doubleing rate, is like 1,5 day(s) (or less).

You have to remember, that hospitalisations lag behinde infections, by like 2-3 weeks, and deaths by like 4-6 weeks.

So todays 7day avg (of around 900 critical ill, hospitalised with covid, is well under the ~4000 or so, it had it its peak).
However, 3 weeks ago, infections in the UK wasnt as dramatic as it is today.

How will the big picture look a month down the line? or two? esp. after Christmas family gatherings?

January, is bound to see a drastic increase in hospitalisations to covid.
And with how transmittable omikron is, its better to try slowing it abit, so it doesnt wash over everyone all at once, and break the care system (past their stress points).

Hospitalization and deaths don't lag that far behind, max 2 weeks.

Comparing the last Delta wave in South Africa with the new Omicron wave

Deaths in black (different scale)

Deaths are not going up in South Africa since the Omicron wave started 3 weeks ago.
It's very contagious (South Africa is 25% fully vaccinated) but doesn't seem deadly.

Yet if it will prompt more measures to finally put an end to the delta wave, double bonus. A weaker variant to add to immunity, replace Delta and people finally being more careful to get the numbers down.

I could be wrong, but I'm not feeling particularly worried about this new variant. We'll find out soon enough as it seems we're at the leading edge (After South Africa that is)
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/ontario-at-leading-edge-of-omicron-er-doctor-1.5710982

New modelling released Thursday by Ontario's Science Advisory Table suggests the Omicron variant is set to become the dominant strain in the province this week, with intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy potentially reaching "unsustainable levels" in early January without "prompt intervention."

The big difference with South Africa is of course the age factor, median age in Canada is 41.1, only 27.6 in South Africa. We started with boosters for 60+ a couple weeks ago, now everyone is eligible for a booster.

And of course hospitalizations aren't the same as deaths

A recent study of cases in South Africa found protection against severe illness with the vaccine was 70 per cent, compared to 93 per cent with the Delta variant. Children also appeared to have a 20 per cent higher risk of hospital admissions with complications, although cases have been few and the data is considered very early.

However

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/south-africa-hospitalization-rate-falls-91-in-omicron-wave-1.1697267

Only 1.7% of identified Covid-19 infections in the second week of the fourth wave of infections were admitted to the hospital, compared with 19% in the same week of the third wave, which was driven by delta, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said.

Omicron cases can be 11x as high to reach the same number of hospitalizations. It's a new race with much faster exponential growth.

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 17 December 2021