TL:DR in spoiler (hopefully simplified)
PS3 shipped 63.9m by March 31st 2012
PS2+PS3 combined ships 16.5m in the year ending March 31st 2013
PS3 ships 3.1m from April 1st 2013 to September 30th 2013
PS3 shipped 80m by Nov 2nd 2013
If PS3 had accounted for 13m of the 16.5m combined figure then PS3 would already have reached 80m by September 30th 2013. So at an absolute minimum where PS3 ships no units between September 30th and Nov 2nd, the PS2 ships 3.5m in the missing year of data, add that on to the 155.01m as of March 31st 2012 and the lifetime PS2 is brought up to a minimum of 158.51m.
Edit: Alternate second method using official PS3 figures as of March 31st 2017 and breaking down PS3 FY sales to determine PS2+PS3 combined possible minimum split. Thanks to @RolStoppable for linking the PS3 march 2017 figures. This method shows PS2 HAD to have sold over 158.29m (Link)
The last official number for PS2 ever given was 155.01m as of March 31st 2012. The PS2 was discontinued in January 2013 and we never got another number because starting with their quarterly report for June 30th 2012 Sony began combining PS2+PS3 numbers.
However because we did receive PS3 shipment numbers in the following year we can use the combined numbers to determine a range that the PS2 must have ended up at. Here's what we have. (All sources will be linked at the bottom of the post)
March 31st 2012
PS2 = 155.01m
PS3 = 63.9m
June 30th 2012 - PS2+PS3 shipped 2.8m this quarter
September 30th 2012 - PS2+PS3 shipped 3.5m this quarter
December 31st 2012 - PS2+PS3 shipped 6.8m this quarter
March 31st 2013 - PS2+PS3 shipped 3.4m this quarter
So the total combined sales of PS2+PS3 for the year of PS2 sales we have missing is 16.5m. Now how do we work out how many of those 16.5m are PS2's?
Well luckily we have some help, Sony announced that as of November 2nd 2013 the PS3 had shipped 80m units. This means that between March 31st 2012 and November 2nd 2013 the PS3 shipped 16.1m units, and we have figures for some PS3 quarters in 2013.
June 30th 2013 - PS3 shipped 1.1m this quarter
September 30th 2013 - PS3 shipped 2m this quarter
December 31st 2013 - PS3 shipped 3.3m this quarter
Here's a table with every number we have:
| PS2 Quarterly | PS2 Total | PS3 Quarterly | PS3 Total | PS2+PS3 Quarterly | |
| March 31st 2012 | 0.6m | 155.1m | 1.9m | 63.9m | 2.5m |
| June 30th 2012 | ? | ? | ? | ? | 2.8m |
| September 30th 2012 | ? | ? | ? | ? | 3.5m |
| December 31st 2012 | ? | ? | ? | ? | 6.8m |
| March 31st 2013 | ? | ? | ? | ? | 3.4m |
| June 30th 2013 | 0 (discontinued) | discontinued | 1.1m | ? | 1.1m |
| September 30th 2013 | 0 (discontinued) | discontinued | 2m | ? (<80m) | 2m |
| November 2nd 2013 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 80m | N/A |
| December 31st 2013 | 0 (discontinued) | ? | 3.3m | 80m"}">>80m | 3.3m |
Some of the December 31st 2013 numbers are after the November 2nd date but just taking the June/Sept 2013 quarter numbers away from 16.1m we already bring the missing PS3 shipments down to 13m.
So now we have:
PS2+PS3 shipped 16.5m between April 1st 2012 and March 31st 2013.
PS3 Shipped 13m between April 1st 2012 and March 31st 2013 combined with October 1st 2013 to November 2nd 2013.
So the PS3 shipments in the period where PS2+PS3 shipped 16.5m combined (April 1st 2012 and March 31st 2013) MUST be less than 13m.
The only missing piece of the puzzle is how many of the 3.3m PS3's shipped in the holiday quarter of 2013 were shipped before November 2nd. If we had that or we had PS3 shipments as of December 31st 2013 we could get the exact number of PS2's sold lifetime.
As we can't get that then worst case scenario for PS2 all of PS3's 3.3m holiday quarter shipments in 2013 were after Nov 2nd, meaning PS2 sold 158.6m
Best case scenario for PS2 all of PS3's 3.3m holiday quarter shipments in 2013 were before Nov 2nd, meaning PS2 sold 161.9m
Obviously both extremes are unrealistic, October will generally ship less than Nov/Dec but rather than doing any guesswork and keeping this entire post purely mathematical and void of any guesswork.
PS2 sold somewhere between 158.51m and 161.81m.
Sources:
PS2+PS3 combined figures (Page 8) - FY 2012 Consolidated Financial Results (sony.com)
PS3 2013 quarterly shipments (Page 13) - FY2013 Consolidated Financial Results (sony.com)
PS3 ships 80m as of November 2nd 2013 - PlayStation®3 Sales Reach 80 Million Units Worldwide (prnewswire.com)
(PS3 final 2013 quarter is determined by taking away the 4.5m shipped PS4's figure from the combined PS3+PS4 sales in the PDF)
Edit: I was digging for information for PS2 shipments because I was requested to make a ps2 vs ds graph, but of course many people have come to this conclusion before me lol.
There's a whole thread discussing the situation in 2018 here: What was the lifetime sales of the PS2? Not 158m [Update: Between 159.2m and 161.9m] | Page 2 | ResetEra
There are people coming up with the same range as me 158.51-161.81m, ZhugeEX says FY12 was probably up YoY and that would increase the minimum to 159.2m
Last edited by Zippy6 - on 13 December 2021
