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src on 27 November 2021
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JEMC said:
src said:

From recent analysts numbers PS5 is dominating XSX similarly or more than PS4 did to the XB1 in its first year. Only thing Sony is missing out is having a large PS5 userbase early on and as a consequence exclusive games may sell less.

Sony expects to sell 46 million in 2.5 years. If PS5 is stock constrained even after a 23M selling year then we may have all seriously underestimated the demand and PS5 could sell 140M in the same timeframe as PS4 (remember PS4 peak year was 20.5M).

Exclusive games (at least the big ones, not the indie ones), will be less and less frequent as development costs don't stop raising. After all, Sony now alsao ports its own exclusives to PC to have an extra source of income. Therefore, having or not a large userbase early on won't be enough fot publishers to make exclusive deals... at least not without a generous amount of money from Sony.

Also, you're talking about the future while I talk about the present. Every customer that can't get a PS5 will be faced with the prospects of getting no console, either for him/herself or as a present, or just pick another console. And those that choose to not wait, the choice between a 300€ Switch or a PS4 leans in favor of the former for several reasons (it's newer, has a better future ahead, some people already have a PS4, etc.).

There's also the chance that some will go for an Xbox machine, but given how constant the numbers are, they also seem to be supply constrained.

PS5 beating XSX more than PS4 beating XB1 is a current stat. It certainly does indicate that people who want PS5 are willing to wait for it, unless the real ratio is even more PS5 leaning.

Sony exclusives already have the biggest budgets and still make Sony plenty of profit because they sell so much. They port games on PC to increase awareness of their IPs in regions where PS5 is not as big as PC or entice PC owners to get a PS5 for the sequel. Many many games sell mostly on consoles so it all depends on if Sony sees PC is a PS5 negative or a PS5 positive (advertising future IPs).