RolStoppable said:
The music industry was hit the hardest by digital, so let's take a look at that for the United States: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/13/tech/vinyl-records-cd-sales-riaa/index.html What's interesting is that vinyl sales have been growing consecutively since 2005, so even for music there are people who see value in the physical format. What's even more interesting is that the more modern physical format, the CD, is steadily declining. So when it comes to your question how far technology has come, the answer is that higher value isn't necessarily assigned to the newer technology. Where music and video games differ greatly is that music is very low cost in comparison to video games, meaning there will naturally be a lot more consideration for purchases among video game customers because they'll pay much more per unit. That's why I don't see video games go in the same direction as music where both physical and digital sales are getting absolutely destroyed by streaming, plus video games are an interactive medium where streaming presents the persistent problem of delayed input. In the first half of 2020, the US music industry had: $4.8 billion from streaming In any case, the big takeaway here is that if vinyl isn't going away in the digital-dominated music industry, then the physical medium won't go away in the video games industry either, because it's a given that there will be demand for new physical video games 40 years from now. It's really you who is being unreasonable here. Another takeaway and logical prediction is that disc-based media will go away in video games. Just like vinyls are seen as a higher value products than CDs, so are cartridges and cards in comparison to CDs, DVDs and Blu-rays. I cannot say if cards will be supplanted by another similar format for physical video games in the next 50 years (cartridges were supplanted by cards), but I can be certain that optical discs will go away because they are perceived as a low quality storage medium. |
The problem here is that the niche in the music market can be catered to easily, as the physical media can be played on any compatible device produced by hundreds of different companies allowing this group of people to be supported by many entities. It's not a "Sony Vinyl" that only plays on the "Vinyl Station 5". In the games industry it would require a single player to continue to support it, the platform holder, and the media produced would be playable on only their one device. Making it an even smaller group and the platform holder has to decide if this group remains large enough to warrant continuing support, especially when digital-only offers many advantage to the platform holder.
Also those music figures you posted show physical accounting for only 6.6% of revenue in the music industry and while vinyl may be growing overall physical is falling substantially which you chose not to include from your article?
"However, the boost in vinyl interest hasn't been enough to keep physical sales from dropping. Physical sales plunged 23% to $376 million"
Vinyl grew 4%, Physical overall fell 23%, Streaming grew 12%.
The core of your belief is that physical software remains in demand and is attributed value from a group of consumers that can't be filled by digital releases. This is of course true, the question is how big this group remains and for how long.
You also mention you only focus on Nintendo only, but if MS/PS do switch to Digital only like PC then the result of the rest of the games industry being digital only may erode the fervent demand for physical from those that play on multiple consoles. Equally third parties that are used to only digital releases on PS/XB/PC will likely only release digital versions on Nintendo even if Nintendo offer physical still.
How low does physical revenue have to drop before a platform holder decides physical isn't worth bothering anymore? Before they decide they don't want to produce, store and organise shipping for millions of boxes around the globe? That they don't want to increase manufacturing costs of their devices by including physical media drive? That the space and weight taken up by the physical drive could be used by something else or just reduce the size, weight and cost of the device? That they don't want to have to think about what storage medium they will use for physical games next generation or worse go through the effort of developing their own? How long before Nintendo see's they get the full $60 from every first party game they sell on digital and push further and harder towards it?
Yes there is inherent value in physical games that can't be replaced by digital, but how many people will still continue to care and how long will it be enough people for the "big 3" to continue supporting when an all digital future benefits them the most.
You're absolutely right that disc-based media will be gone first.
Last edited by Zippy6 - on 21 November 2021
