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Fiscal Year PlayStation Nintendo
2016 19%
2017 27% 15.30%
2018 32% 17.30%
2019 43% 24.80%
2020 53% 34%
2021 65% 42.80%

As we can see, the trend is clear. Physical software is dying, just like the movie/tv and music industries digital will become dominant and physical releases will become extremely niche. The digital ratio will rise high enough that even the biggest releases will not be able to hit the 10m physical sales mark. Even the biggest releases like Mario Kart that sell 40m will be under 10m physical once they reach 80% digital and beyond.

The ratio will continue to rise for all platform holders until the point is reached that the ratio is so high a game would have to sell an astronomical amount to possibly reach 10m physical sales.

Physical is dying, the trend is clear, anyone who thinks physical will continue to be relevant to the point of managing 10m+ sellers is deluding themselves because they want physical to remain relevant. Seeing PlayStation digital go from 19% to 65% in 5 years how could anyone possibly think physical will remain strong enough by 2060 to vote "never". Video Games will follow the other industries in leaving physical behind. The all digital future already happened on PC years ago.

Nintendo confirms 50% digital sales for Animal Crossing: New Horizons |

For those curious this is how the music industry has switched away from physical over time: source

Year Digital
2004 2.30%
2005 9.50%
2006 18.10%
2007 25.40%
2008 34.80%
2009 42.60%
2010 49.10%
2011 52.30%
2012 60.60%
2013 65%
2014 68.80%
2015 73.70%
2016 81.60%
2017 83.20%

Last edited by Zippy6 - on 19 November 2021

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My Xbox Series S is my baby. It grew up into an X.