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Shouldn't this be in the general gaming forum?

Concerning the topic at hand, um...I dunno.  Banjo has brand recognition, but chances are most Banjo fans own Wiis (as they were probably Mario fans first). Also, we haven't had a Banjo released in over a generation.

Because of this, both will end up facing the struggles of a new IP, imo.

I'd have to go with LBP, personally. It's already being advertised on TV and in-store at GameStop, all while previewers are gushing over the game every chance they have to play it. Banjo has thus far received no such love.

Unless MS/Rare start building the hype train now, LBP should outsell it pretty handily.

Of course it also depends on how the final games turn out.  If one ends up sucking, it probably won't sell very well.  From where I'm sitting, LBP will be the better game overall.