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I think I voted 40-50m before the release, but the first year has clearly shown that is bound to do better than Xbox One. Currently it sells almost double of what Xbox One did compared to the same weeks launch aligned. I'll go with 60-70m option, but I think 70-80m is a possibility too, but it will depend on the next few years if Microsoft will be able to maintain the same positive brand perception they have now and them being able to deliver the games.

Bonus question: Tales of Arise