With RE Village reappearing on the charts this week, I thought it might have moved up on your top 50. However it is at 46 with no other PS5 titles there with it. There only needs to be 5 more decent SKUs released this year to push it right out of the top 50, meaning PS5 will get nothing in the top 50 this year. On top of this, Switch games have the top 19 spots (and Switch third party games have the top 2). PS4 is exiting the software charts fast, and PS5 software is not selling well enough to finish in the top 50. I don't see any other possibility than total Switch domination for the next several years in Japan. And I am talking domination to the extent that this year won't seem nearly as one-sided as the years to come. |
In terms of the Top 20 I think the floor will be 300K which no PS4 game will achieve physical only. Last year the floor of the Top 20 was Resident Evil 3 with 269K the only other PS4 game to make the Top 20 was Ghost of Tsushima with 427K sales
While for the Top 30 floor is looking like 200K, last year it was Nioh 2 with 167K, so at best 4 PS4 games will make the cut this year Tales of Arise & Resident Evil: Village, Nier Replicant & Lost Judgement. Last year there were 7 games that made the the Top 30.
Top 50 floor last year was 94K, this year we are looking at at least 110K as the floor. Nine out of twenty games in the 30-50 ranking last year were PS4 games, here is where PS4 will lose the most ground this year right now I'm only seeing Demon Slayer, Tsukihime & GTA Trilogy as potentially making this bracket.
So I expect 5-7 PS4 games to make the Top 50 compared to 18 last year. PS5 has zero chance to have a Top 50 game in Japan in 2020. Resident Evil: Village is right now on discount selling it's initial shipment, unlikely to get a second shipment for the holidays and its still very far from 110K, the other potential game is Tales of Arise which fell outside the Top 30 with 60K sales it would need to nearly double this and get a second shipment in the holidays in order to make it.
