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noshten on 11 November 2021
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M-C CY Top 1000 2020:

  1. NSW - 471
  2. PS4 - 455
  3. 3DS - 49
  4. PS5 - 14
  5. PSV - 11

Nintendo - 520

PlayStation - 480

M-C CY Top 1000 2019: 

  1. PS4 - 469
  2. NSW - 362
  3. 3DS - 104
  4. PSV - 60
  5. XB1 - 5

PlayStation - 529

Nintendo - 466

M-C CY Top 1000 2018: 

  1. PS4 - 422
  2. NSW - 206
  3. 3DS - 193
  4. PSV - 155
  5. WIU - 13
  6. XB1 - 10

PlayStation - 577

Nintendo - 374

M-C CY Top 1000 2017: 

  1. PS4 - 347
  2. 3DS - 264
  3. PSV - 245
  4. NSW - 52
  5. WIU - 43
  6. PS3 - 40
  7. XB1 - 9

PlayStation - 632

Nintendo - 359

M-C CY Top 1000 2016: 

  1. PSV - 294
  2. 3DS - 290
  3. PS4 - 236
  4. PS3 - 105
  5. WIU - 60
  6. XB1 - 15

PlayStation - 635

Nintendo - 350

M-C CY Top 1000 2015: 

  1. PSV - 284
  2. 3DS - 266
  3. PS3 - 194
  4. PS4 - 148
  5. WIU - 63
  6. XB1 - 24
  7. PSP - 19
  8. 360 - 2

PlayStation - 645

Nintendo - 329

When you talk about third party releases you seem to be focused on a very limited amount of titles. 

Media Create's Top 1000 for the past five years paints the more complete picture, a ton of third party games were exclusive to the PSV and by now most of the developers behind those games are either making multiplat or Switch exclusive titles. 

I wouldn't call this shift irrelevant especially as it's likely to continue into 2022 when PS ecosystem will hit a low point, this year PS4 still supported 100-200K titles but next year this will become increasingly difficult as hardware is barely being sold anymore. With chip shortages continuing into 2022, the active user-base of the PS5 will continue to be low to support many 100-200K sellers, let alone any title surpassing 300K. Currently no game has sold over 100K physical units in Japan on the PS5, and only 5 titles have surpassed 100K on the PS4 this year according to Famitsu's physical estimates. 

The popularity of the PS5 is evident by it's software sales, most of the Japanese audience isn't paying a premium to resellers to purchase the console, so they are ending up overseas. This is leading to an active Japanese userbase that's still below 500K. We know that the chip shortage will continue in 2022 and that would mean that again majority of PS5 sales will end up overseas, leading to low software sales in Japan. By the end of 2022 it could be that PS5 active audience in Japan is still not big enough to support a game surpassing 300K, something PS4 had no problem doing in 2015. 

PS5 Top 5 Nov 2020-Nov 2021:

  1. Resident Evil: Village (Capcom) - 67.210
  2. Miles Morales (Sony) - 60.772
  3. Tales of Arise (Bandai Namco) - 60.106 
  4. Demon Souls (Sony) - 58.611
  5. Lost Judgement (Sega) – 33.151

PS4 Top 5 2014:

  1. Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes - 144.798
  2. Yakuza: Ishin! - 129.307
  3. Destiny - 119.707
  4. Grand Theft Auto V - 107.524
  5. Battlefield 4 - 107.282

PS4 Top 5 2015:

  1. Metal Gear Solid V - 421.743
  2. Dragon Quest Heroes - 325.778
  3. Call of Duty: Black Ops III - 274.270
  4. Bloodborne - 209.538
  5. Star Wars: Battlefront - 162.325

The first potential PS5 game to reach 100K in a single year is likely going to be Elden Ring and sales will be split across the PS4/PS5 - so I doubt the PS5 version would even reach the sales MGSV Ground Zeroes achieved in 2014. Even if Final Fantasy XVI launches in 2022 if it's a PS5 exclusive in Japan its likely to struggle to hit 300K. 

Now if high profile games are struggling to reach even 100K on the PS5, what is left for smaller publishers that get the majority of their sales in Japan? Sure Final Fantasy XVI might end up very successful even if they see a huge decline in Japan because of growth elsewhere but not everyone is the size of Square and can get paid by Sony for exclusivity. 

Last edited by noshten - on 11 November 2021