PS1 and PS4 each did it once, the PS2 and the Wii each did it twice, but the DS shipped >20m units for 4 years, two of which were >30m. While the Switch never had a year that high, it will certainly ship more than 20m units next year and I do believe that it could still be shipping over 20m units for fiscal year April '23 - March '24. I truly believe that it's possible at this rate, and here's why:
1. Switch is still on fire.
I believe that 2022 is going to be massive for Switch. In fact, if it weren't for the extenuating circumstances that boosted 2020 to peak sales, I believe that 2022 could have been Switch's peak year. We have three 10m+ sellers with Pokemon Legends: Arceus at the beginning of the year, BOTW2 likely at the end of the year and Splatoon 3 somewhere in the middle. Factor in other games like Bayonetta 3, new Rabbids, 3D Kirby, Project Triangle and so many unannounced surprises like possibly Pikmin 4 (and still hoping for the new DK) to go along with the hype of the OLED. Normally, the only thing preventing Switch from 25m+ sales IMO would be saturation setting in, but since I firmly believe that 50m+ Switch units will still be sold in its life, saturation isn't really a massive factor yet. However, there is one thing that will likely prevent Switch from selling its full potential in 2022...
2. The Chip Shortage
Frankly, if it wasn't for this, I think Nintendo could meet demand for 2022 and 2023 would fall below 20m units. But with Nintendo unable to make enough Switch's to satiate demand, I believe that sales will level out, making spillover demand continue in 2023 for >20m units shipped. Of course, 2023 would still have to be a great year for Switch. There are price drops up Nintendo's sleeve, software we can hope for like Metroid Prime 4 and a new Pokemon sequel to Sword/Shield, and quite possibly one other thing that will give Switch its last hurrah...
3. New Nintendo Switch (4K)
Normally I wouldn't believe it but there are just too many rumors from reasonably credibly sources that suggest that a Switch with a new chip is coming. Not a massive performance jump per se (probably very similar to NEW 3DS), but with Nintendo's partnership with NVidia it is very likely that the ability to do 4K when docked via DLSS is in the cards for a redesign. If a New Nintendo Switch debuted in 2023 it would be enough to fuel another 20m+ year for the console in its then 7th year on the market. Granted, it will probably be just barely above 20m, but I think that Switch will be the first game system to ship more than 20m units for five years.
Last edited by archbrix - on 07 May 2022
