| Norion said: An important factor to consider is saturation since there are only so many people in Japan who will buy a console. Switch will head into 2022 at 23m so I expect saturation to kick in soon slowing down sales. The strong software releases will help soften the decline though so reaching the DS there is possible. |
Saturation effects start to kick in when a system has approximately half of its lifetime sales. This is also when the system peaks. It still remains to be seen if Switch will peak in Japan in 2020 or 2021. However, given how close the two year end totals will be, I'd say the theoretical peak was sometime earlier this year. If Switch's peak was in 2020, then double it's LTD for end of 2020 and add a few million. If Switch's peak was in 2021, then double the 2021 LTD and subtract a few million. That gives a pretty good ballpark of what Switch's lifetime sales will be.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
