Predict Switch 2021 sales (calendar year)

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Zippy6 said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

I voted 29-30.9m.  I think Switch will be up this year.  I think it could be up more than this, but the chip shortage will keep it to a slight increase.  I do think Switch is likely to break the all time annual sales record this year, but it will be close.

Switch is 1.24m down YoY as of October 9th and all indications are the gap is going to immediately start widening again after OLED launch week. We already know Japan is 23k down YoY for OLED's 2nd week, and 2020 continued to post 500k+ weeks all the way up to Black Friday.

To sell 29m+ Switch is going to have to sell 11.5m-12m in November and December alone. That would be the best Nov+Dec any console has ever had.

To say 29.66m+ to beat DS's record is likely is... very very optimistic.

Based on your post, it sounds like most people are doing a week by week tally of projected future sales, while I am doing a proportion based on previous years.

"To sell 29m+ Switch is going to have to sell 11.5m-12m in November and December alone. That would be the best Nov+Dec any console has ever had."
If Switch is going to have the best year ever, then it isn't unrealistic to say that it will have the best Nov + Dec ever.  Those are the two most important months out of the year.  Your argument is basically, "If Switch were going to break a record, then it would have to break a record."  This is circular reasoning.

The real question is, "Is Switch going to break a record?"  Last year it came extremely close, and the main thing that held it back is that Switch had a very disappointing holiday as compared to the rest of its sales that year.  With a new hardware model and a Pokemon game releasing this year, it is very likely to outsell 2020's holiday period by a good margin.

Obviously, none of us knows the future, nor do we really know how slight or extreme the chip shortage will be.  However, to say that Switch will be down this year is ... "very very pessimistic."