It's actually a very small gap when you consider that Switch it 2020 didn't achieve anywhere near it's potential sales,
Switch 2020 Q4: 2.002.858
Switch 2019 Q4: 1.975.243
Switch 2018 Q4: 1.755.871
Switch 2017 Q4: 1.598.575
With OLED, Pokemon Remakes, Mario Party, SMT V I expect this Quarter for hardware to reach at least 2.2 million could end up a lot higher if Nintendo have been able to maintain production targets of 30 million for the FY. There is also a New Horizon direct that I expect to have an impact.
Overall 2021 is heading for peak hardware and on Famitsu with just 2.1 million needed to surpass 6 million:
My Prediction:
Week: Total Sales / OLED Sales
- Week 41: 230K / 170K
- Week 42: 170K / 120K
- Week 43: 150K / 90K
- Week 44: 150K / 90K
- Week 45: 150K / 90K
- Week 46: 100K / 50K
- Week 47: 100K / 50K
- Week 48: 100K / 50K
- Week 49: 250K / 150K
- Week 50: 250K / 170K
- Week 51: 300K / 180K
- Week 52: 250K / 170K
TOTAL: 2300K / 1380K
I'm not really sure which week Pokemon drops but I'm guessing it's 49, basically with-out the OLED I could have easily pictured this year, I expect Nintendo to ship less than 1.5 million OLEDs to Japan. The item to be the hottest video game gift for the holidays leading to high price not only in Japan but also in China, South Korea & Taiwan. If demand is not satisfied in neighboring countries I can foresee a situation where many OLEDs end up overseas similarly to PS5.
I don't think OG Switch will suddenly become unpopular if you can't get your hands on OLED but want Switch for the holidays, the Lite will drop down to around 15-20% of hardware sales for Nintendo in Japan after OLED launches, I actually think it demand for it will take the biggest hit overall and could end up fewer than 500K sales this Q. With OLED launches it just replaces the demand there was for the OG Switch. I think if Nintendo really wanted to sell the Lite at high numbers in Japan they would need to drop the price of it by at least 30%.
Next year I expect the OLED to phase out the OG in Japan as production scales up to meet demand.
We will see, but that's what I anticipate will happen.
