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I don't think God of War will release in 2022 if it was a 2022 release you would of seen a 2022 on the trailer at Sony showcase. Sony as a history of moving their big title in late Q1 or early Q2. Starfield > Zelda BOTW 2 > Horizon > Redfall.

In terms of lineup, we know that Microsoft is going to continue to bring game to gamepass every month in 2022, therefore when we consider that will include Starfield and Redfall it is an easy win for Microsoft. A few time exclusive for Sony should expire in 2022 (Deathloop, FF VII Remake, Kena).