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hiccupthehuman said:
src said:

Its not just timed its also marketing rights and exclusive incentives that tie users to Playstation, which is one reason why the lean is now 70:30.

COD, FIFA, GTA, Harry Potter, NBA2K

Timed or full: KOTOR, FF16, FF7R, Forspoken, Genshin Impact, Babylon Fall, Project EVE, Persona, Ghostwire, Deathloop, Team Ninja, rumours of FROM exclusive game, rumours of Bioshock 4 exclusivity.

Again, Xbox has none of this on this scale. 

Phil Spencer lied. Xbox pursues third party exclusivity deals, for instance The Medium. Its more like Xbox is now getting dominated by Playstation so much that no major third party wants to give them exclusivity or it would be so expensive that it makes no business sense.

$2B is holiday quarter only makes much more sense.

Leaked/now released documents from the Apple/Epic case. Document 551-4, p.41

Sony - Year total revenue = $18.3B , 3P software only $8.6B.

Revenue including MTX is an entirely different comparison as I said before. This is because a lot more money is made through F2P games per user than through software sales.

MS leaked document DX-5523.003 : 70% of total revenue in the industry comes from F2P (includes mobile)

Epic leaked/release doc: Fortnite revenue: PS = 48%, XB = 27% .

That's 36:64, quite different from 70:30 - 80:20 we see in software sales. Remember we saw 72:28 for hardware sales PS4:XB1

  • HARDWARE SALES : 72:28
  • SOFTWARE SALES : 70:30
  • MTX REV : 65:35
  • TOTAL REV : 66 : 33 (pre-Bethesda)

Why is this important? It shows Xbox has lost the platform business. I don't think they can recover from a 70:30 losing position. If Playstation was to get more third party big exclusives (GTA, Bungie, CDPR, MHW) or buy a publisher things would get bad for Xbox really quick.

Its clear Gamepass is MS's entire bet on the Xbox division.

So that 8.6 billion from PlayStation was for the entire year. The >2 billion from Xbox was for a period of 3 MONTHS. Granted, it was the 3 holiday months and not every quarter can match holiday sales, but still, this shows Xbox is no slouch at all.

Xbox has major marketing deals too: Battlefield 2042, Far Cry 6, Yakuza: Like A Dragon, Cyberpunk, Destiny: Beyond Light, Back 4 Blood, Dying Light 2,...

And let's be real. The Bethesda deal is still the biggest deal in console history EVER. It literally made headlines and generated intense debates for months. It is absolutely on the scale of any of those deals. You are writing your own rules on what counts as major and what doesn't, and for some reason you decided that a whole publisher acquisition is not as major as a timed deal, because it is counter to the argument otherwise. The whole point of these moves by Sony or MS is to get exclusive games. Whatever method is used doesn't matter, it is the results that matter. And if we are to include major rumored exclusives then add Kojima Productions and IO Interactive to Xbox.

For timed stuff, Phil said AAA third-party. Deals with indie devs like Bloober are different. Indies are usually always seeking financial assistance from big publishers, whether it's MS, Sony, EA Originals, etc.

Now the PS5:Xbox Series ratio is 62:38. And sales in Japan in particular on a weekly basis are now matching Xbox 360 levels. We're seeing games that were PS4 exclusives by default last-gen come to Xbox: Tales of, Yakuza, Judgment, King of Fighters, Dragon Quest. Back in the PS4 era, Sony didn't even need to write a cheque for those games to be exclusive. Now, Sony would need to pay for those games to remain exclusive, because otherwise they'll come to Xbox by default because it makes financial sense to make Xbox versions again. It's clear from the gap between Xbox One and Series that things are going better for Xbox. Xbox owners get more support. This can only be good for the industry.

And no, Games Industry does NOT include digital. It is called the "UK BOXED Charts" for a reason. Every week it's always explicitly written in the article as well. 

Xbox is doing good, and so is everyone else. The games industry is best when all major players are at their best.

That 8.6B is a figure from iirc 2018. Playstation now makes $15B from software only (digital and physical). More/equal to the entire Xbox division.

Holiday quarters usually account for outsized parts of the FY, around 30%. This would put Xbox at $6.6B for the year. We can add $1-2B from 1st party and you're looking at $8-9B.

8/(15+8) = 35% ---> 65:35 (which is tilted compared to physical due to MTX like I said before). Its still the same scenario.

You're going around in circles. The point is Sony are so dominant that MS can get no major third party exclusives. Something that you have not been able to disprove.

Acquisitions are first party, and like I said before, its a loosing game as there are only a handful of publishers, all of them being public companies. MS can't buy Activision or T2 or SE (cause they wouldn't sell) but Sony can get COD deals, GTA deals, Bioshock exclusive, FF exclusive etc.

Again, Phil's lying. Its not that they aren't pursuing, its that they can't get those deals because Xbox has too little marketshare compared to Sony.

DQ, Yakuza and Judgement came due to Xbox having to pay for them lol. A lot of games are multiplatform now due to consoles and PC all having the same architecture which makes porting very easy and economical.

GSD, which gets posted later and is what the totaled UK charts are includes digital. Besides that Digital for Tales on Xbox is not going to be too different to digital for Tales on PS, claiming that digital software sales (not MTX), will somehow make things better is desperation. They are roughly the same for both.

Xbox third party ratio is in its worst position since the OG Xbox. Their first party strength has massively declined from 360, Xbox had 1 10 million+ game. Sony has 7.

Without Bethesda, Xbox would be on the way out and its clear EVERYTHING depends on Gamepass. If Gamepass turns out to be unsustainable, or cannot grow, Xbox could be facing an existential crisis.