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src said:
hiccupthehuman said:

It doesn't make a difference. Those acquired studio were third-party. Why did they agree to join Xbox if it is such a bad deal to be exclusive with Xbox? Sony can't make timed exclusive deals for every title either. Sony tried to get Starfield. They really tried hard to get Bethesda games to be associated with PlayStation, but it's a lost battle now.

Besides, Phil Spencer had said since 2015 that he would no longer pursue third-party exclusivity deals. If they aren't trying, of course they won't have any. Simply different strategies from Xbox and PS.

"PS's third party revenue to be $8.6B. Almost 4.5 times bigger."

Source?

The official report Sony released shows that their entire software sales was 13.8 billion for the entire year. And that figure included first-party sales. So maybe that 8.6B third-party fit in that. But the 2 billion from MS I provided was only from the holiday quarter (3 months).

Source: Games Industry

If you want to compare the Q3 2020 holiday quarters, then on software Sony made

  • Physical Software Revenue reached ¥50.9bn / $0.487B (+20.8% YoY)
  • Digital Software + Add-on Revenue (PS Store) reached an all-time high of ¥432.8bn / $4.14B (+41.9% YoY)
    • the biggest quarterly revenue PS Store ever recorded

Source: Sony Q3 FY2020 (Oct-Dec) Results - PS5: 4.5m, PS4: 1.4m (LTD: 114.9m) / Record Year for PlayStation / Highest Quarterly Revenue in video game history News | ResetEra

0.487B+4.14B = 4.627 billion for the games revenue. But that also includes first-party.

Q3 FY2020 PS: 4.627 billion (first-party+third-party) vs Xbox: 2+ billion (only third-party). This is concrete proof that the ratio of PS: XB is nowhere near 80:20.

People who buy Xboxes also buy games. I don't know why some people find it so hard to believe. A gamer, whether he chooses to buy an Xbox or a PS, will still buy the games he wants, doesn't matter the device. No one buys an expensive piece of hardware just to never buy software.

Its not just timed its also marketing rights and exclusive incentives that tie users to Playstation, which is one reason why the lean is now 70:30.

COD, FIFA, GTA, Harry Potter, NBA2K

Timed or full: KOTOR, FF16, FF7R, Forspoken, Genshin Impact, Babylon Fall, Project EVE, Persona, Ghostwire, Deathloop, Team Ninja, rumours of FROM exclusive game, rumours of Bioshock 4 exclusivity.

Again, Xbox has none of this on this scale. 

Phil Spencer lied. Xbox pursues third party exclusivity deals, for instance The Medium. Its more like Xbox is now getting dominated by Playstation so much that no major third party wants to give them exclusivity or it would be so expensive that it makes no business sense.

$2B is holiday quarter only makes much more sense.

Leaked/now released documents from the Apple/Epic case. Document 551-4, p.41

Sony - Year total revenue = $18.3B , 3P software only $8.6B.

Revenue including MTX is an entirely different comparison as I said before. This is because a lot more money is made through F2P games per user than through software sales.

MS leaked document DX-5523.003 : 70% of total revenue in the industry comes from F2P (includes mobile)

Epic leaked/release doc: Fortnite revenue: PS = 48%, XB = 27% .

That's 36:64, quite different from 70:30 - 80:20 we see in software sales. Remember we saw 72:28 for hardware sales PS4:XB1

  • HARDWARE SALES : 72:28
  • SOFTWARE SALES : 70:30
  • MTX REV : 65:35
  • TOTAL REV : 66 : 33 (pre-Bethesda)

Why is this important? It shows Xbox has lost the platform business. I don't think they can recover from a 70:30 losing position. If Playstation was to get more third party big exclusives (GTA, Bungie, CDPR, MHW) or buy a publisher things would get bad for Xbox really quick.

Its clear Gamepass is MS's entire bet on the Xbox division.

So that 8.6 billion from PlayStation was for the entire year. The >2 billion from Xbox was for a period of 3 MONTHS. Granted, it was the 3 holiday months and not every quarter can match holiday sales, but still, this shows Xbox is no slouch at all.

Xbox has major marketing deals too: Battlefield 2042, Far Cry 6, Yakuza: Like A Dragon, Cyberpunk, Destiny: Beyond Light, Back 4 Blood, Dying Light 2,...

And let's be real. The Bethesda deal is still the biggest deal in console history EVER. It literally made headlines and generated intense debates for months. It is absolutely on the scale of any of those deals. You are writing your own rules on what counts as major and what doesn't, and for some reason you decided that a whole publisher acquisition is not as major as a timed deal, because it is counter to the argument otherwise. The whole point of these moves by Sony or MS is to get exclusive games. Whatever method is used doesn't matter, it is the results that matter. And if we are to include major rumored exclusives then add Kojima Productions and IO Interactive to Xbox.

For timed stuff, Phil said AAA third-party. Deals with indie devs like Bloober are different. Indies are usually always seeking financial assistance from big publishers, whether it's MS, Sony, EA Originals, etc.

Now the PS5:Xbox Series ratio is 62:38. And sales in Japan in particular on a weekly basis are now matching Xbox 360 levels. We're seeing games that were PS4 exclusives by default last-gen come to Xbox: Tales of, Yakuza, Judgment, King of Fighters, Dragon Quest. Back in the PS4 era, Sony didn't even need to write a cheque for those games to be exclusive. Now, Sony would need to pay for those games to remain exclusive, because otherwise they'll come to Xbox by default because it makes financial sense to make Xbox versions again. It's clear from the gap between Xbox One and Series that things are going better for Xbox. Xbox owners get more support. This can only be good for the industry.

And no, Games Industry does NOT include digital. It is called the "UK BOXED Charts" for a reason. Every week it's always explicitly written in the article as well. 

Xbox is doing good, and so is everyone else. The games industry is best when all major players are at their best.

Last edited by hiccupthehuman - on 17 September 2021